By Neil Paine — Mar 4, 2026
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is approaching fast. Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to improve their cases. We track the bubble using a consensus of bracketology forecasts and core résumé metrics (NET, Quadrant wins, résumé ranking). For at-large projection purposes (assuming a team doesn’t win its conference tournament) we classify teams as Locks (virtually certain), Should be in (generally ≥75% consensus odds) and Work to do (results still could swing their fate).
Current snapshot: Locks — 29 teams. Should be in — 11 teams. Work to do — 15 teams.
SEC — 10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)
Locks (6): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky.
Should be in (3):
– Georgia — signature victories and six Q1 wins have consensus odds in the high 90s. Next: at Mississippi State.
– Missouri — on a strong run with five Q1 wins and a top-40 résumé; about 90% odds. Next: vs. Arkansas.
– Texas — six Q1 wins and rising model support (~81%); résumé sits near the top of the league. Next: at Arkansas.
Work to do (2):
– Texas A&M — recent setbacks trimmed projections despite a home win over Kentucky; consensus around 73% with five Q1 wins. Next: at LSU.
– Auburn — five Q1 wins and an extremely tough schedule, but 14 losses drag down the profile; odds near 30%. Next: at Alabama.
Big Ten — 9.2 expected bids (8.2 at-large)
Locks (6): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin.
Should be in (3):
– Iowa — résumé sits in the low-30s nationally; crucial regular-season closeouts vs. Michigan and Nebraska.
– UCLA — three Q1 wins and a résumé that ranks among the stronger Big Ten résumés; consensus just under 90%.
– Ohio State — a big Q1 win over Purdue pushed odds into the 80s; résumé near the top 40.
Work to do (2):
– Indiana — four straight losses left the Hoosiers with a conditional at-large probability near 45%; résumé slipped outside the top 50. Next: vs. Minnesota.
– USC — five straight defeats and the loss of leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara have reduced chances to roughly 14%. Next: at Washington.
ACC — 7.9 expected bids (6.9 at-large)
Locks (5): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State.
Should be in (3):
– Clemson — résumé steady; odds above 90% despite a late skid. Next: vs. Georgia Tech.
– Miami — résumé around the top 30 and roughly 90% odds after a strong conference stretch. Next: at SMU.
– SMU — consensus in the high 70s; still in the mix but drifting. Next: vs. Miami.
Work to do (2):
– Virginia Tech — has two Q1 wins and a top-50 résumé but odds are low (~23%); a win over Virginia is essential.
– California — résumé near the 50th spot with four Q1 wins, but recent losses leave odds around 10–15%.
Big 12 — 7.8 expected bids (6.8 at-large)
Locks (6): Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU.
Should be in (1):
– UCF — résumé around the top 30; with several locks ahead of them, UCF projects as the conference’s seventh bid. Next: at West Virginia.
Work to do (2):
– TCU — seven wins in eight and five Q1s after beating Texas Tech; consensus near 70%; big matchup vs. Cincinnati.
– Cincinnati — late surge with Q1 wins but résumé still outside the top 50; consensus in the mid-30s. Next: at TCU.
Big East — 3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova.
Should be in: None
Work to do (1):
– Seton Hall — a marginal bubble profile; a recent win over Xavier helped but odds remain below 20%. Next: vs. St. John’s.
Other mid-majors and smaller conferences
Locks (3): Gonzaga (WCC), Utah State (Mountain West), Saint Mary’s (WCC).
Should be in (1):
– Saint Louis (A-10) — top-30 résumé and a pair of Q1 wins; comfortably placed as an at-large if needed.
Work to do (notable cases):
– Miami (Ohio, MAC) — an undefeated run and a résumé in the top 40, but strength of schedule is weak and models are conflicted. Next: at Ohio.
– Santa Clara (WCC) — win over Oregon State and a top-40 résumé; model chances near 70%; WCC tournament could decide their fate.
– New Mexico (Mountain West) — borderline top-50 résumé with roughly coin-flip odds; head-to-head with San Diego State has evened things.
– San Diego State (Mountain West) — inconsistent late results; résumé near the top 50 and recent loss to New Mexico lowered odds to about 30%.
– VCU (A-10) — 12 wins in 13 but only 1–5 against Q1 opponents; résumé in the mid-40s and models around 30%.
– South Florida (American) — 10 of the last 11 wins, résumé around 53rd, mid-teens odds with limited remaining chances to add signature results.
How we judge teams
– Model consensus: a blend of conditional at-large odds from BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
– Résumé ranking: an average of SOR, NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
– Predictive ranking: an average of BPI, KenPom, BartTorvik, TeamRankings and SRS.
– Strength of schedule and projected records from BPI.
– Quadrant wins measured using the NCAA’s quadrant definitions.
Bottom line
With about two weeks left in the regular season, many teams are effectively locked, several should feel confident but are not immune, and a tight group remains truly on the bubble. Final regular-season games and conference tournaments will determine a number of seats: signature wins and Quadrant results matter most, and the committee will weigh comparative résumés — especially when distinguishing mid-majors from marginal power-conference cases. Expect some movement, but only a handful of teams can substantially change their odds before Selection Sunday.
