You know the routine: after the conference finals I and my colleagues often fill out a bracket on air in under five minutes. Here I give you more time and reasoning to use in your pools. Last season was chalky — all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four — but 2026 looks more open. The top teams aren’t as overpowering, so expect volatility. Back upsets you genuinely trust and avoid long, lottery-ticket runs. Below are my best guesses, region by region, with short explanations.
EAST REGION
First round
1 Duke over 16 Siena — Take the 1 seed; Duke’s talent edge, led by Cameron Boozer, matters.
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State — Toss-up; I lean TCU.
5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa — St. John’s is underseeded and not a typical upset target under Rick Pitino.
4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist — Kansas’ rim protection and experience win out.
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville — Upset pick while Louisville is banged up.
3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State — Tom Izzo in March is dangerous.
10 UCF over 7 UCLA — UCLA’s injuries make UCF a viable flier.
2 UConn over 15 Furman — Interior advantage favors UConn.
Second round
1 Duke over 9 TCU — If healthy, Duke’s depth carries them.
5 St. John’s over 4 Kansas — St. John’s guards can trouble Kansas.
3 Michigan State over 11 South Florida — Jeremy Fears Jr. and MSU experience push them forward.
2 UConn over 10 UCF — UConn’s size and defense advance them.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 5 St. John’s — Health is the deciding factor; I side with Duke.
3 Michigan State over 2 UConn — I like MSU’s toughness and March pedigree.
Elite Eight
3 Michigan State over 1 Duke — Spartans avenge an earlier loss and reach the Final Four.
SOUTH REGION
First round
1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh — Florida’s frontcourt size dominates.
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson — I give the slight edge to Iowa’s shotmaking.
5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese — Vanderbilt’s guards handle this matchup.
4 Nebraska over 13 Troy — Nebraska breaks through for an NCAA win.
6 North Carolina over 11 VCU — UNC should advance despite vulnerabilities.
3 Illinois over 14 Penn — Deeper Illinois offense prevails.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M — Gaels control tempo; go chalk.
2 Houston over 15 Idaho — Houston’s defense closes this.
Second round
1 Florida over 9 Iowa — Size and interior play win out.
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska — Guard play makes Vanderbilt the pick.
3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina — Balanced scoring pushes Illinois forward.
2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s — Defense and matchup versatility favor Houston.
Sweet 16
1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt — Frontcourt matchup and motivation from the SEC rematch matter.
3 Illinois over 2 Houston — I favor offense here; Illinois advances.
Elite Eight
3 Illinois over 1 Florida — Illinois’ guards rain it in; they get past Florida’s bigs.
WEST REGION
First round
1 Arizona over 16 Long Island — Arizona’s talent is simply superior.
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova — Toss-up; I take Utah State.
5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point — Wisconsin’s guard play and matchups help.
4 Arkansas over 13 Hawaii — Arkansas, led by freshman Darius Acuff Jr., moves on.
11 Texas over 6 BYU — Texas’ size and late momentum make them dangerous.
3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State — Coaching and program history favor Gonzaga.
10 Missouri over 7 Miami — Close call; I pick Missouri as a mild upset.
2 Purdue over 15 Queens — Purdue’s Big Ten form and Braden Smith carry them.
Second round
1 Arizona over 9 Utah State — Depth and size push Arizona through.
4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin — Acuff Jr.’s star power swings this one.
11 Texas over 3 Gonzaga — Texas is a sneaky 11 with size and coaching; they pull the upset.
2 Purdue over 10 Missouri — Braden Smith separates Purdue.
Sweet 16
1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas — Arizona’s overall talent is the difference.
2 Purdue over 11 Texas — Balance and interior play favor Purdue.
Elite Eight
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue — Arizona’s youth and talent edge Purdue for a Final Four berth.
MIDWEST REGION
First round
1 Michigan over 16 UMBC/Howard — Even with injury questions, Michigan’s talent wins.
8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis — Georgia’s transition athleticism matters.
5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron — If Christian Anderson is healthy, Texas Tech advances.
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra — Labaron Philon Jr. helps Alabama’s scoring.
11 SMU/First Four over 6 Miami (OH), but Tennessee likely advances — Tennessee’s defense is a big factor.
3 Virginia over 14 Wright State — Virginia’s defense controls the game.
7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara — Kentucky is wounded but still advances.
2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State — Cyclones’ defense is elite.
Second round
1 Michigan over 8 Georgia — Michigan’s higher-end talent takes over.
4 Alabama over 5 Texas Tech — Alabama’s shooting gives them the edge.
6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia — Physicality and offensive rebounding push Tennessee through.
2 Iowa State over 7 Kentucky — Joshua Jefferson and Iowa State’s two-way play advance them.
Sweet 16
1 Michigan over 4 Alabama — Michigan is the top team in this quadrant.
2 Iowa State over 6 Tennessee — Cyclones’ defense forces turnovers and decides the game.
Elite Eight
2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan — In a matchup impacted by injuries, Iowa State’s defense is the difference; they win the region.
FINAL FOUR
Michigan State (East 3) vs. Illinois (South 3) — Top defense versus top offense and a clash of styles. Winner: Michigan State.
Arizona (West 1) vs. Iowa State (Midwest 2) — Arizona’s talent and depth get them through. Winner: Arizona.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Arizona vs. Michigan State — Arizona’s young, talented roster outmuscles Michigan State to claim the title.
Champion: Arizona
Final note: This bracket leans toward sensible upsets and pays attention to injuries and matchups. Use it as a framework — trust your read on matchup specifics and recent health updates when you submit your picks.
