Dan Graziano
Mar 16, 2026, 06:35 AM ET
You know we love our overreactions. And there is absolutely no time of year that is better for overreactions than NFL free agency.
Your favorite team spends big on Day 1 and it’s easy to dream. Some moves might have a Saquon Barkley-level impact, but most won’t live up to lofty expectations. Some will flop completely. The uncertainty is a big part of the fun. I picked a few situations from last week’s frenzy and took a shot at predicting whether they’ll hold up.
J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. are both done as starting QBs
The Vikings signed Kyler Murray and the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa, setting up veteran competitions with J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr., the 10th and eighth overall picks from 2024. McCarthy had an injury-plagued rookie campaign that included 12 interceptions and 27 sacks in 10 starts. Penix opened 2025 as the Falcons’ starter but missed the final eight games with a torn ACL; his history includes two prior ACL reconstructions in college, and his timeline to return is uncertain.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Murray and Tagovailoa bring big names but also red flags. Murray missed time with injury and was released by Arizona despite guaranteed money remaining; Tagovailoa was benched late in Miami’s season and later cut with large guarantees left. Both arrive in new situations with things to prove — and neither should be assumed to be instant job-takers. The Vikings still have faith in McCarthy and likely expect Murray to push him; the Falcons probably view Penix as their starter when healthy, with Tagovailoa insurance. Don’t assume these veterans will automatically displace recent top-10 picks.
The Steelers are about to have their first losing season since 2003
Mike Tomlin stepped away in January after 19 seasons without a losing record. Pittsburgh won the AFC North at 10-7 in 2025, added Michael Pittman Jr., Jamel Dean and Rico Dowdle, and lost Kenneth Gainwell and Isaac Seumalo. They haven’t solidified a quarterback, and much of the league believes they’re hoping Aaron Rodgers returns.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
A losing season was always possible. Sustaining 22 straight non-losing seasons is extraordinary, but recent records (nine, nine, 10, 10, 10) show a team that’s been solid but not elite. The main issue is quarterback continuity; since Roethlisberger they haven’t found a lasting solution. A 42-year-old Rodgers, who hasn’t been top-20 in QBR since 2021, is at best a stopgap. Mike McCarthy is competent and will try to keep things steady, but Pittsburgh’s ceiling has been limited, and the floor could drop out.
Kenneth Walker III will be the No. 1 RB in fantasy in 2026
Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker signed a big deal with the Chiefs, who hope he brings explosiveness to a run game that has struggled since Kareem Hunt. Walker had 1,027 rushing yards in 2025 and 33 runs of 10-plus yards. Isiah Pacheco left for Detroit; Kansas City’s backfield now looks like Walker, Emari Demercado and Brashard Smith, and Walker’s $14.35 million per year suggests a significant role.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Walker’s ceiling is high, but Andy Reid’s offense is pass-first, especially when Patrick Mahomes returns to full strength. If Mahomes is delayed in returning to top form, the offense may sputter. Reid also favors creative red-zone plays over handing the ball every time. Walker has injury history and previously split work in Seattle with Zach Charbonnet. He should be a very good player for Kansas City, but expecting an every-down workload that pushes him to fantasy RB1 ignores context.
A.J. Brown and Maxx Crosby won’t be on new teams in 2026
Early free agency saw those two top trade targets remain with their teams. Crosby’s proposed trade to Baltimore collapsed after the Ravens balked at his physical; Brown remains with Philadelphia despite ongoing calls about his availability. As teams move on, some wonder if the Eagles and Raiders missed their windows.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
It’s early in the offseason. The trade deadline is more than seven months away. Teams will keep talking and can rekindle trade interest as the draft approaches, after June 1 for cap reasons, or in August when injuries create new needs. Brown and Crosby might be on their current teams in Week 1, but the lack of immediate trades doesn’t mean deals won’t happen later.
The Rams are fittingly going to win the Super Bowl in Los Angeles
The Rams looked like one of the league’s best teams for much of 2025 before losing to Seattle late and in the NFC Championship Game. They added starting cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson and haven’t lost much in free agency. They could still add a wide receiver and more.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It’s reasonable to see the Rams as true contenders. They nearly reached the Super Bowl and addressed a key weakness by upgrading the cornerback room. They might not know how much longer they have with Matthew Stafford, but as long as that window is open they’ll operate in win-now mode. The division will be tough, but Los Angeles has the pieces and motivation to be a favorite.
Bottom line
Free agency creates big narratives quickly, but many first-week appearances are misleading. Some moves signal real, immediate change; others are context-dependent or gradual. Expect more twists as the draft approaches, June 1 cap maneuvers occur and training camp injuries alter plans. The fun is in guessing which reactions stick.
