We were running low on superlatives for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor and the season he’s having. Thankfully, he gave us a new one Sunday. It was, without question, the most spectacular performance ever by an NFL player in Berlin — OK, it was the first NFL game in Berlin, but Taylor’s effort would hold up regardless. He rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns, including the overtime game-winner, and caught three passes for 42 more yards — 286 scrimmage yards — highlighted by an 83-yard touchdown run with just over six minutes left in the fourth quarter. A week after a 45-yard shellacking in Pittsburgh, Taylor authored his best outing and got the Colts back on track; Indianapolis is 8-2, tied with Denver and New England for the league lead through Week 10.
Jonathan Taylor will break multiple single-season NFL records
Taylor is on pace for 2,378 scrimmage yards (fourth-most all time on that pace, within shouting distance of Chris Johnson’s 2,509), and 1,936 rushing yards (10th all time on pace, and with a couple more 200-yard games could flirt with Eric Dickerson’s 2,105). He’s on pace for 26 rushing TDs (fourth-most pace; LaDainian Tomlinson’s record is 28) and 28 total TDs (tied for second pace, three behind Tomlinson’s 31). Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Colts have leaned on him all season, there aren’t reliable high-usage backups to cap his production, and as long as the offensive line holds up Taylor can continue piling up huge games — even if two of his remaining opponents have elite run defenses.
The Bills’ inactivity at the trade deadline will cost them the AFC East
Buffalo followed a dominant win over Kansas City with a baffling loss at Miami. New England, meanwhile, won its seventh straight to improve to 8-2 and sit a game-and-a-half ahead of the Bills in the division; Buffalo is 2-2 in AFC East games while the Patriots are 2-0. Could the Bills have used defensive help at the deadline? Yes — they’re allowing 147.6 rushing yards per game and have already given up more rushing TDs than all of last season. Verdict: OVERREACTION. Buffalo has won the AFC East five years running and has a coaching staff that knows how to get a defense into playoff form. Two months remain; don’t write them off yet.
The winner of next week’s Chiefs-Broncos matchup will win the AFC West
Denver is 8-2 despite a streak of close, low-scoring wins — a team that has survived tight margins but still leads the division. Kansas City (5-4) heads to Denver off a bye, with Andy Reid historically dominant after byes (22-4). If Denver wins, it would hold a commanding lead going into its bye; if the Chiefs win, they’d keep the division much more open. Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Math favors the team that wins next week: a Chiefs victory gives momentum and tiebreak leverage, while a Denver win would create a tough deficit for Kansas City to overcome, even with Mahomes and Reid.
The winner of next week’s Seahawks-Rams matchup will win the NFC West
Seattle jumped out to an early blowout of Arizona and cruised; the Rams beat San Francisco and completed a season sweep. Both are 7-2 and meet in Los Angeles in Week 11. The 49ers sit 6-4 and Arizona is 3-6, so the Week 11 winner would indeed be in the driver’s seat. Verdict: OVERREACTION. The victor gains a one-game edge, but this division is deep and divisional rematches loom (Rams and Seahawks meet again in Week 16). The 49ers remain dangerous, and the Cardinals have shown they can stifle potent offenses; the West is far from decided.
Jayden Daniels shouldn’t play again this season even if he’s cleared
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels suffered a dislocated left elbow late in Washington’s loss to Seattle and missed the loss to Detroit. He might not be cleared for multiple weeks, and some argue that by the time he is cleared Washington could be out of the playoff race and returning him would be an unnecessary risk to a franchise QB’s long-term future. The Commanders are 3-7 and momentum has stalled. Verdict: OVERREACTION. Graziano disagrees with the notion of sitting a cleared QB purely to protect long-term value. Football is inherently risky; if doctors clear Daniels and he’s willing, he should play. The Commanders can still flip their season — a win in Madrid and a strong finish could get them back to contention. Don’t bench a player solely out of fear.
Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions
– TreVeyon Henderson is a must-start RB from here on out. NOT AN OVERREACTION. He flashed explosiveness and touchdown upside in short-yardage and breakaway situations; few rookies offer that week-winning ceiling.
– Tyler Shough is a must-grab in keeper leagues. OVERREACTION. A 19-for-27, 282-yard, 2-TD game is impressive, but one strong performance in a team trending toward high draft positioning doesn’t make him a lock keeper unless you play long-term upside.
– Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can both be started in fantasy lineups. OVERREACTION. You can deploy both in certain circumstances, but goal-line splits and role overlap make weekly dual starts risky.
– Justin Jefferson’s fantasy ceiling is capped by J.J. McCarthy. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Through early McCarthy starts we’ve seen a low-volume passing attack; Jefferson remains elite but the QB situation limits his ceiling until the offense opens up.
– Tyler Warren is the TE1 in next year’s drafts. OVERREACTION. He’s promising in the Colts’ scheme, but projecting him as the top tight end a year out ignores potential QB changes and other emerging talents.
Bottom line: Taylor’s season is real and historic in the making. Key divisional showdowns in the AFC West and NFC West will swing momentum, but neither race is decided. Don’t overreact to single losses — Bills and Commanders have paths forward — and in fantasy, separate one-game fireworks from consistent, repeatable roles.
