You already know the drill. After calling the SEC championship, my colleagues and I fill out a bracket on air with less than five minutes. Here, I give you more time to use my picks for your pools. Last season my bracket was chalky — all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four — but this season looks different. The top teams aren’t as dominant, so expect more surprises. Pick upsets you believe in and that you think won’t carry deep into the bracket. Here are my best guesses.
EAST REGION
First round
1 Duke over 16 Siena. Take the 1 seed; Duke’s talent edge, especially Cameron Boozer, matters.
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State. A coin flip; I’ll take TCU.
5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa. St. John’s is underseeded; Rick Pitino’s teams aren’t prone to first-round upsets.
4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist. Kansas’ rim protection should carry them.
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville. Upset pick while Louisville’s banged-up.
3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State. Tom Izzo in March.
10 UCF over 7 UCLA. With UCLA banged up, UCF is worth a flier.
2 UConn over 15 Furman. UConn’s interior advantage wins out.
Second round
1 Duke over 9 TCU. Duke still advances if reasonably healthy.
5 St. John’s over 4 Kansas. St. John’s can beat the Jayhawks.
3 Michigan State over 11 South Florida. Jeremy Fears Jr. is rolling.
2 UConn over 10 UCF. Huskies advance to second weekend.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 5 St. John’s. Duke’s health is the key; I take them.
3 Michigan State over 2 UConn. I like the Spartans’ fight and draw.
Elite Eight
3 Michigan State over 1 Duke. MSU avenges an earlier loss; Izzo’s team in the Final Four.
SOUTH REGION
First round
1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh. Florida’s frontcourt size dominates.
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson. Bennett Stirtz is a high-volume shotmaker.
5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese. Vanderbilt’s guards are too good.
4 Nebraska over 13 Troy. Nebraska finally wins an NCAA tournament game.
6 North Carolina over 11 VCU. UNC should advance despite being vulnerable.
3 Illinois over 14 Penn. Illinois’ offense is deeper.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M. Gaels slow the game; chalk here.
2 Houston over 15 Idaho. Houston’s defense and Kingston Flemings close it out.
Second round
1 Florida over 9 Iowa. Size and frontcourt wins in the end.
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska. Vanderbilt’s guards make the difference.
3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina. Illinois’ balanced scoring prevails.
2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s. Defense and matchup versatility favor Houston.
Sweet 16
1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt. Florida’s size and motivation from the SEC rematch matter.
3 Illinois over 2 Houston. I take offense over defense here; Illinois advances.
Elite Eight
3 Illinois over 1 Florida. Illinois’ guards rain it in over Florida’s bigs.
WEST REGION
First round
1 Arizona over 16 Long Island. Arizona is simply too good.
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova. Coin flip; take Utah State.
5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point. Wisconsin’s guards and matchup potential matter.
4 Arkansas over 13 Hawai‘i. Arkansas’ freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. leads them through.
11 Texas over 6 BYU. Texas has size and late-season momentum.
3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State. History and coaching favor the Zags.
10 Missouri over 7 Miami. Coin flip; take Missouri as an upset.
2 Purdue over 15 Queens. Purdue’s Big Ten form and Braden Smith prevail.
Second round
1 Arizona over 9 Utah State. Arizona’s depth and size push them through.
4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin. Acuff Jr.’s star power gives Arkansas the edge.
11 Texas over 3 Gonzaga. Texas is a sneaky 11 with size and coaching; they upset Gonzaga.
2 Purdue over 10 Missouri. Braden Smith separates Purdue.
Sweet 16
1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas. Arizona’s overall talent is enough.
2 Purdue over 11 Texas. Purdue’s balance prevails.
Elite Eight
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue. Arizona’s youth and talent beat Purdue’s experience; Wildcats reach Final Four.
MIDWEST REGION
First round
1 Michigan over 16 UMBC/Howard. Despite L.J. Cason’s season-ending injury, the 1 seed advances.
8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis. Georgia’s athleticism in transition matters.
5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron. If Christian Anderson is healthy, Texas Tech takes it.
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra. Labaron Philon Jr. gives Alabama a scoring edge.
11 SMU over 6 Miami (OH) in First Four, but Tennessee over either. Tennessee’s defensive intensity wins.
3 Virginia over 14 Wright State. Virginia’s defense sends Wright State home.
7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara. Kentucky is wounded but I take them.
2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State. Cyclones’ defense is elite.
Second round
1 Michigan over 8 Georgia. Michigan’s top-end talent wins.
4 Alabama over 5 Texas Tech. Alabama’s shotmaking carries them.
6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia. Tennessee’s physicality and offensive rebounding push them through.
2 Iowa State over 7 Kentucky. Iowa State’s two-way star Joshua Jefferson and defense advance them.
Sweet 16
1 Michigan over 4 Alabama. Michigan is the best team here; Lendeborg leads them.
2 Iowa State over 6 Tennessee. Cyclones’ defense forces turnovers; Iowa State advances.
Elite Eight
2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan. Without L.J. Cason, Iowa State’s defense is the deciding factor; Cyclones win the region.
FINAL FOUR
Michigan State (Midwest’s 3) vs. Illinois (South’s 3). A battle of Izzo vs. Underwood, top defense vs. top offense. Winner: Michigan State.
Arizona (West’s 1) vs. Iowa State (Midwest’s 2). Arizona’s talent and depth get them through. Winner: Arizona.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Arizona vs. Michigan State. Arizona wins its first title in nearly 20 years.
Winner: Arizona
