With two fixtures remaining, the Premier League’s unwanted scrap to avoid the drop has come down to Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United. Burnley and Wolves have already been relegated, and one of Spurs or the Hammers will join them in the Championship next season.
Tottenham sit 17th, two points clear of 18th-placed West Ham and hold the better goal difference. Roberto de Zerbi’s team were held to a 1-1 draw by Leeds, missing the chance to open a four-point gap; Spurs also remain without a home league win since early December. De Zerbi has urged his players to cut out errors if they want victories in the run-in.
West Ham’s recent setback came in a 1-0 defeat to league leaders Arsenal, a game in which a late Callum Wilson equaliser was ruled out by VAR. Manager Nuno Espírito Santo admitted survival is “not in our hands” and acknowledged how tough the task ahead is, while promising his side will keep fighting.
Where the sides go next matters. Opta’s model gives Spurs roughly a 19.5% chance of relegation versus about an 80.5% chance for West Ham. West Ham travel to Newcastle United first; two days later Tottenham head to Chelsea. A Hammers victory at St James’ Park would lift them above Spurs into 17th and put the pressure back on Tottenham. Any other result at Newcastle would leave Spurs with the advantage and the opportunity to secure safety at Stamford Bridge — though Spurs have historically found wins there rare.
If survival is not settled this weekend, the final day will be tense: Tottenham host Everton and West Ham entertain Leeds. Both fanbases and pundits have offered different takeaways from recent form.
A Spurs supporter notes the draw with Leeds felt like a missed chance but stresses that Spurs are in the “driving seat,” needing a minimum of four points to be confident of staying up. He points to De Zerbi’s influence and an unbeaten four-game run as reasons for optimism, while admitting a trip to Chelsea is a tough hurdle.
A West Ham fan writer, bruised by the Arsenal defeat, remains hopeful. He argues that if West Ham can beat Newcastle they would be favourites on the final day—drawing on their strong recent home record and the prospect of a vocal home crowd. If West Ham are still behind by two points going into the last weekend, their fate could depend on Everton doing Spurs a favour; relying on other results, however, is far from ideal.
A BBC sport analyst sums up the contrast: Spurs have steadied under De Zerbi, sitting on an unbeaten run that has brought some resilience back to the side, while West Ham appear to be sliding at the worst possible moment, vulnerable to damaging losing runs. That means Spurs still retain control of their destiny, whereas West Ham’s margin for error is shrinking rapidly.
In short: West Ham must take points at Newcastle to change the narrative; Tottenham, with one foot in safety if they can get a result at Chelsea, must avoid slipping up at home on the final day. Survival may come down to who holds their nerve across two defining matches.
