Miami is inching closer but still needs help. With the Hurricanes at No. 12 in the College Football Playoff committee’s fourth ranking, the ACC still has a shot at two teams in the 12-team field, but time is short. The ACC champion (even if it’s No. 18 Virginia) is almost certainly one of the five highest-ranked conference champions and thus would be a playoff entrant. The question is whether Miami can earn an at-large bid with one game left — Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Ole Miss’s result in the Egg Bowl could affect the bubble; No. 6 Oregon moved ahead of No. 7 Ole Miss after Tuesday’s rankings, suggesting a second Ole Miss stumble might close the gap for some contenders.
Bubble Watch reflects what the committee has signaled so far and historical precedent about teams clinging to hope. Teams marked “Would be in” are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, “Last team in” and “First team out” show the true bubble teams. “Still in the mix” are teams not eliminated but needing wins or help. “Out” teams must wait until next year.
Conferences are listed by number of bids they’d receive under the current fourth ranking.
SEC
– Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
– Last team in: Alabama. A win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl would lock a spot in the SEC title game and strengthen Alabama’s CFP case. A loss, creating a potential three-loss SEC runner-up, could jeopardize its place in the top 12 and invite debate about making room for a conference champion or another Big 12 team.
– First team out: Vanderbilt. At No. 14, Vanderbilt needs a win at Tennessee plus several upsets elsewhere to become a serious at-large contender.
– Still in the mix: None.
– Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
– Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
– Last team in: Oregon. The Ducks’ win over USC strengthened their résumé and lifted them above Ole Miss. Oregon’s path to the Big Ten title game is slim (about 16.5% per ESPN Analytics); they must beat Washington and need Michigan to beat Ohio State to reach it.
– First team out: Michigan. No. 15 Michigan can reach the Big Ten title game with an Ohio State win plus others’ losses, but its loss to Oklahoma could hurt its at-large case if tied with the Sooners.
– Still in the mix: None.
– Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
– Would be in: Texas Tech
– Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a Big 12 title game spot with a win at West Virginia; doing so would make them a strong lock for the CFP even with a second loss in the title game.
– First team out: BYU. BYU can clinch the Big 12 title game with a win over UCF; a loss would likely eliminate them from the bracket given the precarious résumé and potential for a second loss to the same team.
– Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU and Utah have paths to the Big 12 title game with specific combinations of wins and losses involving BYU, Texas Tech and others.
– Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
– Would be in: Miami
– Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chance to reach the ACC title game is only about 14.2%, so their most realistic path to the CFP is an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt. Miami’s resume benefits from a Notre Dame head-to-head win and recent convincing wins; the committee has ranked Notre Dame higher overall, but Miami’s recent form and common opponents keep them in contention.
– First team out: Virginia. A win over Virginia Tech will clinch the ACC championship game berth for Virginia. SMU and Virginia have the clearest paths to the title game; SMU would clinch with a win at Cal.
– Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Pitt can get into the ACC title game with a win plus an SMU or UVA loss. Duke needs a win plus two of Pitt/SMU/Virginia to lose. Georgia Tech’s path requires many upsets.
– Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
– Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are in great position; a win over Stanford all but secures waiting-and-watching status for conference title games. Notre Dame’s resume is strong, and the committee will compare common opponents (e.g., Pitt) if Miami beats Pitt. Head-to-head matters but isn’t decisive by itself.
Group of 5
– Would be in: Tulane. The committee prefers Tulane (No. 24) as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team, favoring its stronger schedule and wins over Duke and Northwestern. Computers favor James Madison and North Texas, but the committee’s evaluations have placed Tulane ahead.
– Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU clinched the Sun Belt East Division and will play the Sun Belt title game opponent determined by Southern Miss vs. Troy. Multiple American conference tiebreakers remain; Tulane’s path is comparatively direct.
– Notes: North Texas would clinch with a win; Navy could clinch with a win plus losses by Tulane or North Texas.
Bracket (based on the committee’s fourth ranking)
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games (on campus, Dec. 19–20)
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games (Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl — Dec. 31 and Jan. 1)
– Winner of No. 12/No. 5 vs. No. 4 Georgia
– Winner of No. 11/No. 6 vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
– Winner of No. 10/No. 7 vs. No. 2 Indiana
– Winner of No. 9/No. 8 vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Bottom line: Rivalry Week will reshape the bubble. Miami must beat Pitt to strengthen its at-large case; several other teams’ fortunes hinge on conference-title paths or single rivalry results that could open or close the bracket.
