If you don’t like who’s atop the AFC, wait a week. Expectations entering 2025 favored the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens as a three-team tier led by MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Instead we’ve seen chaos: the Chiefs started 0-2, the Ravens began 1-5 before a turnaround, and the Bills have been uneven. A wider, messier group — led by the Colts, Broncos, Patriots and Chargers — now stakes claims to the conference’s summit. None has a flawless résumé. Below are the cases for each club after Week 10.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-2) — Beat Falcons 31-25 (OT)
The Colts offer a difficult read. Sunday’s OT win in Berlin felt emblematic: resilient but messy. Jonathan Taylor carried Indy, ripping off 32 carries for 244 yards and three TDs, including an 83-yard score. The offense remains elite — 3.2 points per possession ranks among the best stretches in NFL history — and Taylor is on a historic run that could have MVP implications if sustained.
But Daniel Jones has been high variance. After eight starts with minimal negative plays, Jones has produced four interceptions, eight fumbles and been sacked 12 times across the last two games. Indy recovered multiple fumbles to survive Atlanta, but the sack rate and turnovers are real concerns. DeForest Buckner’s neck injury leaves questions for the pass rush, and beyond Taylor and Quenton Nelson the Colts lack clear secondary superstars. On balance: a top-tier offense buoyed by Taylor, tempered by Jones’ recent struggles and defensive uncertainty.
Meaningful résumé highlights: close win over Broncos, dominant win over Chargers, loss to Rams.
DENVER BRONCOS (8-2) — Beat Raiders 10-7
Denver’s identity is defense-first. Vance Joseph’s unit consistently pressures and sacks opponents, led by Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper and Zach Allen; the team’s sack rate leads the league. They’ve performed without Pat Surtain II recently, showing depth and schematic potency. When Denver gets a sack, drives often end — a huge playoff advantage.
The offense, led by second-year QB Bo Nix, is inconsistent. Nix can flare brilliantly but also sputter; he’s struggled with accuracy on deep shots and off-platform throws, producing off-target rates among the worst on long throws. Sean Payton masks some of Nix’s shortcomings with a heavy dose of screens, boots and RPOs, but Nix’s volatility keeps the Broncos from being a lock. If Surtain returns and Nix stabilizes, Denver’s defense could carry them deep; if not, the offense may limit ceiling.
Meaningful résumé highlights: narrow loss to Colts, close loss to Chargers, win over Eagles.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2) — Beat Buccaneers 28-23
Mike Vrabel’s Patriots have won seven straight and control an easy path through a soft remaining schedule. Drake Maye has been outstanding — an efficient deep thrower and scrambler who leads strong metrics (QBR on deep passes and against the blitz). New England pairs Maye with explosive plays from multiple targets and a young running back in TreVeyon Henderson, who produced two huge long TDs in Tampa Bay.
But the wins include many against weak opposition; the Pats’ schedule has been extraordinarily friendly and they’ve collected scoreboard-grabbing big plays rather than consistent offensive success. Maye has also shown some accuracy issues in poor weather and can be turnover-prone in pressure moments. The defense has made key plays late, and veteran free-agent additions helped seal Week 10. Overall: a legitimate team led by a potentially elite young QB, but one whose résumé is padded by soft competition.
Meaningful résumé highlights: road win over Bills, win at Buccaneers.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-3) — Beat Steelers 25-10
The Chargers pair a rising defense with scheming coaches. Jesse Minter’s group ranks near the top in EPA per play on defense, featuring emerging young defenders and veterans, plus standout safety Derwin James Jr. Jim Harbaugh’s staff and Greg Roman’s offensive schemes give Justin Herbert structure; against Pittsburgh the Chargers adjusted to a shorthanded line by dialing up ultra-quick throws, minimizing pressure and producing an efficient win.
The flip side: injuries on offense are severe. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are out for the season, Najee Harris is gone, and other skill players have missed time. Alt’s absence correlates with a major drop in Herbert’s efficiency, and missing two elite tackles significantly caps the passing game’s ceiling. If the Chargers adapt and ground game/line play improve, they remain dangerous; but offensive injuries make sustained elite status harder to assume.
Meaningful résumé highlights: season-opening win over Chiefs, win over Broncos, loss to Colts.
Synthesis and what to watch
The three traditional AFC powers remain dangerous but haven’t run away with the conference. The Colts boast the most explosive offense and a historic running back; its fate hinges on Daniel Jones regaining the low-turnover, low-sack form he displayed earlier. The Broncos possess perhaps the league’s best pass rush and an elite defense, but Bo Nix’s streakiness makes their ceiling volatile. The Patriots are a well-coached, young-QB team riding an easy schedule and Maye’s breakout season; tougher tests will reveal more. The Chargers combine strong coaching and defense with a fragile offense because of injuries; how they cope without Alt and Slater will define their path.
Upcoming matchups loom large: Broncos vs. Chiefs will be a measuring stick for Denver’s legitimacy; the Colts and Chargers still face divisional and conference gauntlets that will test depth and consistency. For now, the AFC’s top is more of a cluster than a trio — and each of these four teams presents a plausible case to lead the conference, with clear risks tied to quarterback play, injuries or schedule strength.
