One down, three to go for Leeds.
Before their crucial win over Nottingham Forest, boss Daniel Farke had said he expected four more victories would secure his side’s Premier League survival. Friday’s 3-1 triumph at a sodden Elland Road — goals from Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert‑Lewin — moved Leeds nine points clear of the relegation zone and ticked one of those wins off. They now sit on 29 points, a total that has been enough to survive in both of the past two seasons.
“It was a game with a bit more on the line,” Farke said. “To deliver in this way with such a spirited performance, it’s sometimes more perfect than an easy 4-0 or 5-0. It was a massive performance.”
Their lead over the bottom three could be cut back to six points if West Ham beat Burnley on Saturday, but little dampened the mood at Elland Road.
What do the stats say about the relegation battle?
History is on Leeds’ side. Only three times has a team been relegated from a 38-game Premier League season after having at least 29 points at this stage. Sunderland had 29 after 25 games in 1996‑97 and finished 18th; Ipswich and Birmingham City had 30 after 25 games in 2001‑02 and 2010‑11 and also went down.
On average, the team finishing 17th ends the season on 38 points — and, as Farke noted, three more wins from Leeds’ remaining 13 fixtures would reach that mark.
Forest are not out of it either. Only three teams have been relegated after being on 26 points at this stage, and among the nine most recent relegated sides the highest at this point was Leicester on 24 in 2022‑23. After Friday, Opta estimated Leeds’ chances of relegation at 4.75% and Forest’s at 10.24%. By contrast, West Ham were on 83.88%, Burnley 98.35% and Wolves 99.99%.
How a double substitution turned Leeds’ season around
Farke looked close to losing his job earlier this season but has overseen a marked turnaround. The change began in November at Manchester City when he switched to a 3-5-2 formation with two up front — a tweak that almost paid off despite a stoppage‑time defeat. Since then Leeds have lost just two of their past 12 games and picked up 18 points.
“They’ve been on a great run since that Manchester City game way before Christmas,” former Leeds midfielder Stuart Dallas said. “They had the change of shape, the change of formation and they’ve put a really good run together. Psychologically it is huge for them ahead of a weekend of big fixtures.”
The work is done at the end of the season
Forest have won only twice in their last nine Premier League matches. One of those wins — 2-1 at West Ham last month — helped prevent the Hammers moving level on points. Even when Forest beat Sunderland, they followed it by winning at Brentford 24 hours later, showing they can respond well in the short term.
But injuries have undermined their consistency. Matz Sels’s groin problem and the decision to replace him with John Victor in December backfired; Victor is now out for the season. Stefan Ortega was signed from Manchester City in January but his debut at Elland Road meant further change to a defence that was consistent last season. Teenager Zach Abbott also made his first Premier League appearance at left‑back in place of the injured Murillo and was targeted in the first half.
Forest boss Sean Dyche was blunt after the defeat. “We just can’t make basic errors like that,” he said. “We didn’t have a lot of time to work with the group at the back but we can’t make basic errors. When we got here we were two points in the relegation zone and now we’re six points out of it. I look at if the work is done at the end of the season, not if we win or lose a game.”
So what now for Dyche?
The full ramifications of another disappointing night for Forest may not be clear until the weekend finishes. West Ham can cut Forest’s cushion to three points with victory at Burnley, while Crystal Palace and Tottenham can stretch their advantages over Dyche’s side to six points by Sunday.
Sources say Dyche is under increasing pressure at the City Ground. Losing to a fellow relegation candidate in such a meek manner will intensify internal scrutiny, and support for the head coach is reported to be less solid than it has been. Owner Evangelos Marinakis has already overseen three managers this season; while a fourth appointment before the end of the campaign seems unlikely, Marinakis has a history of decisive action if he believes it is necessary.
Forest face bottom club Wolves at the City Ground on Wednesday, a home fixture where supporters will expect three points. If they falter there, the pressure on Dyche will only grow.