In its simplicity, baseball’s box score measures the basic building blocks of the game: scoring runs while avoiding outs. The numbers evaluate performance and tell season-defining stories that drive our passion. So the start of a new MLB season begs the question: Who will reach new heights in 2026?
Nobody expected Cal Raleigh to hit 60 homers in 2025. Tarik Skubal’s dominance came quicker than many predicted. Garrett Crochet went from reliever to Opening Day starter. Nick Kurtz rose from a late first-round pick to a superstar slugger in less than a year. Those surprise arcs are why we watch all 162 games. Here are preseason Real or Not takes on eight players who could headline 2026.
Shohei Ohtani: 50 home runs and 20 wins
Ohtani’s 50/50 season in 2024 is arguable as the greatest single-season statistical achievement. Now returning to a fuller pitching load, could he win 20 games and hit 50 homers again? He’s clearly intent on pitching well, and starters have won 20 with fewer than 30 starts (Kershaw, Pedro). But Ohtani will likely pitch roughly once a week — closer to 26 starts — and the Dodgers will protect him for October. That limits decisions and innings compared with historical examples.
Verdict: Not Real. A Cy Young-level pitching year is possible; 20 wins is unlikely given workload management and fewer decisions.
Aaron Judge: 63 home runs … and a Triple Crown
Judge has developed into one of the game’s most complete hitters. At 34, he remains a student of hitting and could produce another monster season. He already has multiple 50-homer campaigns and won the 2025 batting title. A 63-homer year would break his own AL single-season record (62, 2022), and a Triple Crown is conceivable since he has led leagues in homers and RBIs before.
Verdict: Not Real. The Triple Crown is rare (Miguel Cabrera is the only one since 1967), and 63 homers is a big jump from last season. Expect 50-plus homers and a strong MVP case, but not both feats.
Bobby Witt Jr.: 92 extra-base hits
Alex Rodriguez holds the shortstop record with 91 extra-base hits (1996). Witt had 88 in 2024, then 76 in 2025 as his batting average dipped. Kauffman Stadium’s new dimensions — fences moved in along the corners and alleys — could add homers but alter doubles/triples. Witt’s power upside (30–40 homers plausible) and age-26 season timing argue for a big rebound.
Verdict: Real. Witt has the power and age profile to return to his 2024 form and reach 92 extra-base hits with the ballpark tweaks helping.
Paul Skenes: Sub-2.00 ERA … again
Skenes posted a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings his rookie season and a 1.97 in 187⅔ innings in his second. Since 1920, only Koufax and Kershaw logged multiple 100+ inning seasons with ERAs under 2.00, and neither did it three straight years. Skenes has elite velocity, command, multiple pitches, and maturity despite being young. He did allow just one five-run start in 2025 and had 12 shutout starts.
Verdict: Real. While a couple of blowups could wreck the mark, Skenes’ consistency and dominance make another sub-2.00 ERA plausible in 2026.
Juan Soto: A 40/40 season
Soto shocked with 38 steals and 43 homers in 2025, narrowly missing a 40/40 season. His late-season baserunning showed aptitude and determination beyond pure speed. If he repeats his August–September surge over a full season (.285/.418/.596 over final 105 games in 2025), an MVP argument and 40/40 season are within reach.
Verdict: Real. Teams knew of his late-season baserunning yet couldn’t stop him; expect another significant year on the bases and a chance at 40/40.
Mason Miller: Sub-.100 batting average allowed
A reliever with 50+ innings holding opponents under .100 BA has yet to happen. Miller allowed a .139 average in 2025 (28-for-202); to reach .099, batters would need to go 20-for-202. Miller’s short-sample splits with the Padres were extraordinary (7-for-73, .096 in two months; 1-for-37 in September). He averages 101 mph on his fastball and strikes out a lot, but historical precedent shows sustaining sub-.150 year after year is rare outside Chapman and Kimbrel.
Verdict: Not Real. Miller’s profile screams domination, but sub-.100 over a workload is unlikely — it would require both extreme dominance and favorable luck on balls in play.
Nick Kurtz: Second-youngest player to hit 50 home runs
Kurtz, 22 as a rookie, slugged 36 homers in 117 games in 2025 — a 49-in-160-games pace — despite a .197 mark vs. lefties. He mashed in Sacramento and has clear power that projects toward 40+ homers. Prince Fielder is the only 23-year-old to hit 50 (in 2007), and Kurtz is close in age to that mark.
Verdict: Not Real. Kurtz will hit 50 in his career, but 2026 is aggressive given adjustments he must make vs. lefties. Predicting 45 homers is more realistic.
Junior Caminero: Youngest player to hit 50 home runs
Caminero hit 45 homers at age 21 in 2025 — second only to Eddie Mathews (47 at 21) historically. He improved his launch angle, pull rate, and contact, dropping his swing-and-miss substantially. Questions remain: his high chase rate and tendency for grounders (led the league in GIDP) could be exploited, and the Rays return to Tropicana Field, a less homer-friendly park than the minor-league ballpark where he thrived.
Verdict: Not Real. Caminero has the bat speed and future 50-homer ceiling, but doing it in 2026 amid park factors and plate-discipline concerns is unlikely.
Conclusion
Baseball rewards surprise growth and nightly drama. Some of these projections feel within reach — Skenes repeating sub-2.00, Soto’s 40/40, and Witt’s extra-base burst — while others are tempered by workload management, park effects, and adjustments (Ohtani’s 20 wins, Judge’s 63/Triple Crown, Miller’s sub-.100, Kurtz and Caminero reaching 50 this year). That uncertainty is what makes the season worth watching.
