In December 2020, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league was taking a fresh look at expansion. After several years of preparation, the NBA appears to be moving toward adding two teams, with ESPN reporting that the board of governors will vote to explore franchises in Seattle and Las Vegas for the 2028-29 season. Below is a condensed briefing on how expansion could play out, based on reporting and league sources.
Why expand now?
– Expansion is primarily an economic decision for current owners. Adding two teams dilutes each owner’s share (from 1/30 to 1/32) but expansion fees go directly to owners and can be enormous given rising team valuations.
– Reported proposals range roughly $7–$10 billion per team. If both teams fetched about $15 billion combined, each existing owner could receive roughly $500 million, making the timing attractive.
Will expansion definitely happen?
– It would be surprising if it did not. While the vote next week is exploratory and nonbinding, league insiders expect a formal approval could come at the July board meeting during Las Vegas Summer League. Approval requires 23 of 30 owners.
Do players have a formal say?
– The board of governors decides expansion; the players’ union (NBPA) does not have veto power. However, the union favors more roster spots — expansion adds 30 roster spots (36 including two-way contracts).
Why Seattle?
– Seattle has been the largest U.S. city without an NBA team since the SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2008. Climate Pledge Arena (renovated KeyArena) opened in 2021 and addresses prior venue concerns, making a return feasible and symbolically significant.
Why Las Vegas?
– Vegas has effectively functioned as the league’s 31st city: Summer League draws huge crowds; the city already hosts major pro teams (Raiders, Golden Knights, Aces), and the NBA has experimented there with events like the Emirates NBA Cup.
Would other cities be considered?
– International (Mexico City, Vancouver, Montreal) and U.S. markets (Kansas City, Louisville, Nashville) have drawn interest, but none seem likely to leapfrog Seattle or Las Vegas for immediate expansion.
Would Seattle reclaim the SuperSonics identity?
– Yes. The 2008 settlement that allowed the Thunder move to Oklahoma City included terms giving the SuperSonics name, logos and trademarks to any new Seattle team approved to play at a renovated KeyArena (now Climate Pledge Arena) at no cost. The Thunder and NBA have historically combined the two teams’ histories, but sources say Seattle would reclaim Sonics history if a team returns (similar to Charlotte reclaiming Hornets history in 2014).
Conference alignment
– Adding two Western teams would force one current Western franchise to move to the East to restore balance (likely 16–16). Candidates include Minnesota, New Orleans and Memphis. Geography and travel considerations make Minnesota the most logical move despite being farther west than the other two.
Playoffs and NBA Cup
– Playoff structure likely remains: 10 teams qualify (six direct, four play-in). Draft lottery access would expand from five to six teams.
– The NBA Cup group stage could benefit from 32 teams: instead of six groups of five, the league could use eight groups of four (World Cup model), allowing all teams to play on the final group day and enabling a straightforward knockout bracket (top two from each group advancing, or group winners only with a different knockout format).
Rule changes and policy considerations
– The league will reassess expansion draft rules, initial spending restrictions, and draft pick rules to balance competitiveness for new teams without giving them undue advantage.
– Discussions will cover protections for existing teams and mechanisms to prevent expansion teams from being noncompetitive for years, while also preventing a dominant immediate advantage.
How an expansion draft might work (past precedents)
– 2004 Bobcats model: existing teams could protect up to eight players under contract. Teams had to leave at least one player unprotected even if they had fewer than eight under contract. Players with options and restricted free agents (RFAs) were treated in specific ways: selecting RFAs did not transfer their RFA status to the expansion team under past rules, exposing the expansion club to losing them in free agency.
– Historically, only one player could be selected from each existing franchise.
– Two-way contracts did not exist in 2004; the league will need to decide current rules for protecting two-way players and how option years or impending free agency are handled.
– Prior expansions required selecting a minimum number of players but not necessarily one from every team (e.g., Charlotte chose 19 players in 2004 though up to 29 selections were possible).
Lessons from past expansions
– 1995 Raptors/Grizzlies alternated picks, selecting one player from each of the 27 teams then in the league. A coin toss determined first pick order and influenced the subsequent entry draft order.
– Charlotte’s 2004 strategy focused on selecting many players who were RFAs; few re-signed.
How expansion teams fit into the entry draft
– Expansion teams have been assigned slots in the first round historically (e.g., Vancouver sixth, Toronto seventh in 1995; Charlotte fourth in 2004). Expansion teams have been ineligible for the No. 1 overall pick in their inaugural season and in some cases the second season.
Salary cap and roster construction for expansion teams
– Expansion teams typically begin with a reduced salary cap for the first two seasons. Using the 2004 model of starting at 66.6% of the standard cap: with a projected league cap of roughly $183 million, an expansion team would begin with about $121.9 million in Year 1, increase to 80% of the cap in Year 2, and reach full cap by Year 3.
– Expansion teams must meet a salary floor relative to their reduced cap (historically required to spend 90% of the lower cap by the regular-season start).
– Teams can select an expansion draft player and then waive him with his salary not counting against the cap but counting toward the salary floor.
CBA context
– The current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2029-30 season, with an option for either side to terminate on June 30, 2029, with proper notice. Expansion will be implemented under the existing CBA provisions unless renegotiated.
Process/timeline
– Reported next steps: an exploratory vote at the upcoming board meeting, with a potential binding vote at the July board meeting during Las Vegas Summer League. The league will continue months of work on exact rules for draft protections, salary restrictions, expansion draft logistics and other governance items before a final approval.
Bottom line
– Expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas is widely expected, driven by substantial potential owner revenue and strong market readiness. Key outstanding decisions include which Western team moves to the East, the precise rules of the expansion draft, initial salary-cap treatment for the new franchises and how the NBA Cup and other competition formats might be adapted for a 32-team league.
