Overview
After years of discussion, the NBA appears to be moving toward adding two franchises, with reporting indicating the board of governors will vote to explore teams in Seattle and Las Vegas for the 2028–29 season. This briefing summarizes how expansion could unfold, what’s driving it, and the big outstanding decisions.
Why now?
– Expansion is primarily an economic decision for existing owners. Selling new franchises dilutes ownership shares but generates large expansion fees that go directly to owners. Published ranges put fees in the roughly $7–$10 billion-per-team range; combined proceeds could be on the order of tens of billions, making the timing attractive.
– Beyond revenue, both Seattle and Las Vegas are viewed as ready markets with viable arenas and fan interest, which reduces some of the traditional franchise risk.
Likelihood and process
– An exploratory, nonbinding vote is expected first; insiders say a formal approval could follow as soon as the July board meeting during Las Vegas Summer League. Final approval of expansion requires 23 of 30 owner votes.
Players and the NBPA
– The board of governors controls expansion; the players’ union does not have a veto. The NBPA, however, supports expansion because it increases roster opportunities: two new teams mean 30 additional standard roster spots (36 if two-way contracts are included).
Why Seattle?
– Seattle has been the largest U.S. market without an NBA team since the SuperSonics relocated in 2008. Climate Pledge Arena (the renovated KeyArena) opened in 2021 and resolves historical venue concerns.
– A 2008 settlement left the SuperSonics name, logos and trademarks available to any new Seattle team that plays at the renovated arena, so a returning franchise could reclaim the Sonics identity and history if approved.
Why Las Vegas?
– Las Vegas has effectively served as the league’s 31st city for years: Summer League draws large crowds, and the market already supports major pro teams (Raiders, Golden Knights, Aces). The NBA has also trialed events there, strengthening the case for a permanent team.
Other markets
– Cities such as Mexico City, Vancouver and Montreal, plus U.S. markets like Kansas City, Louisville and Nashville, have surfaced as potential candidates for future expansion, but none appear likely to leapfrog Seattle or Las Vegas for immediate entry.
Conference alignment
– Adding two Western teams would require moving one current Western franchise to the Eastern Conference to keep balance (16–16). Names often mentioned as candidates are Minnesota, New Orleans and Memphis. Geography and travel considerations point to Minnesota as the likeliest choice despite its western location.
Playoffs, NBA Cup and schedule implications
– The playoff format is expected to remain the same in principle: 10 teams qualify from each conference (six automatic berths, four via the play-in). The draft-lottery access would expand modestly (historically lottery spots rise by one team in similar expansions).
– The NBA Cup group stage could be simplified with 32 teams. Instead of six groups of five, the league could use eight groups of four (a World Cup-style format), which lets all teams play on the final group day and feeds neatly into a knockout bracket.
Expansion draft, roster and salary-cap rules
– The league will rework expansion-draft protections, initial spending limits and other rules to give new teams a path to competitiveness without unduly penalizing existing clubs.
– Past models offer a template: the 2004 Bobcats expansion allowed existing teams to protect up to eight players; only one player could be taken from each franchise; and various rules governed options and restricted free agents. The league must now address two-way contracts, modern option structures, and free-agency timing.
– Expansion teams have historically been given a restricted share of the salary cap for their first seasons to prevent immediate spending parity. Using the 2004-style model (about 66.6% of the standard cap in Year 1, 80% in Year 2), and a projected league cap around $183 million, an expansion club would start near roughly $122 million in Year 1, move to about 80% in Year 2, and reach the full cap by Year 3. They must also meet a salary-floor requirement computed against the reduced cap (historically about 90% of that lower figure).
– Other technical details: expansion-draft selections can be waived (with rules about how salaries count toward cap and floor), and protections/eligibility for RFAs or players on option years will be negotiated to balance fairness.
How the expansion draft has worked before
– 1995: Raptors and Grizzlies alternated picks and selected players from each existing team, with a coin toss affecting order.
– 2004: Charlotte’s expansion draft allowed teams to protect up to eight players; Charlotte selected far fewer than the maximum available slots and targeted many players with expiring or restricted situations.
– Key lessons: expansion teams often pick players with uncertain long-term ties, and expansion-draft strategy varies depending on whether the goal is short-term competitiveness, cap flexibility, or accumulating tradable assets.
Draft positioning and eligibility
– Historically, new franchises have been assigned a position in the first round rather than being made eligible for the No. 1 overall pick in their inaugural season; past examples include Vancouver/Toronto in 1995 and Charlotte in 2004. The league will determine draft-slot rules for the new clubs.
CBA context
– The current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2029–30 season, with an early termination window (either side can give notice to end the CBA on June 30, 2029). Expansion would be implemented under the existing CBA unless parties renegotiate terms.
Timeline and next steps
– Reported near-term steps are an exploratory board vote followed by months of negotiating concrete rules (protection limits, salary treatments, draft logistics). A binding approval could occur at the July board meeting during Las Vegas Summer League if the required owner threshold is reached.
Bottom line
– Expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas is widely anticipated and driven by significant owner revenue potential and strong market readiness. Major outstanding decisions include which Western team, if any, moves to the East; the precise expansion-draft protections and roster rules; initial salary-cap treatment for new franchises; draft position for expansion teams; and how competition formats like the NBA Cup would be adapted for a 32-team league.
