We’re into the second half of the 2025 NFL season. Standings matter, but FPI, metrics, injuries, schedule and instinct change the picture. Seth Walder grouped all 32 teams into nine playoff tiers using FPI, betting lines, performance, health and reporting. Below are the tiers, each team’s record, playoff/division/Super Bowl chances (FPI) and a brief note plus a tangible second‑half goal from NFL Nation reporters.
Tier 1: True Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) — Playoffs: 96.7% | NFC East: 96.2% | Super Bowl: 18.8%
The defending champs should win the East; roster additions at edge and corner shore weaknesses. Goal: Secure the top seed in the NFC.
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) — Playoffs: 95.2% | NFC West: 54.3% | Super Bowl: 22.2%
Stafford healthy, Puka Nacua elite, defense strong. Goal: Earn home-field advantage.
Buffalo Bills (6-3) — Playoffs: 87.2% | AFC East: 29.3% | Super Bowl: 12.4%
Josh Allen up-and-down; run defense a concern after loss to Miami. Goal: Earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Seattle Seahawks (7-2) — Playoffs: 91.7% | NFC West: 30.9% | Super Bowl: 11.3%
Sam Darnold resurged; offense high-scoring despite weak run game. Goal: Get the run game going.
Tier 2: Super Bowl contenders … if they make the playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) — Playoffs: 75.8% | AFC West: 25.5% | Super Bowl: 18.9%
High EPA per play but slower start; if they reach playoffs, dangerous. Goal: Improve pass rush.
Detroit Lions (6-3) — Playoffs: 83.4% | NFC North: 46.1% | Super Bowl: 14.8%
Balanced team but not a lock due to NFC competitiveness. Goal: Develop offensive identity under OC John Morton.
Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) — Playoffs: 80.1% | NFC North: 41.5% | Super Bowl: 11.4%
Efficient on designed passing; injuries a factor. Goal: Find another playmaker for Jordan Love.
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) — Playoffs: 64.1% | AFC North: 61.9% | Super Bowl: 9.5%
Brutal 1-5 start and Lamar Jackson injury, but division is winnable. Goal: Win a third straight AFC North.
Tier 3: (Almost) playoff locks
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) — Playoffs: 95.4% | AFC South: 86.1% | Super Bowl: 20.9%
Top offense and strong defense after deadline moves; Daniel Jones playing best ball. Goal: Get the defense healthy and consistent.
New England Patriots (8-2) — Playoffs: 94.7% | AFC East: 70.6% | Super Bowl: 9.5%
Drake Maye breakout; schedule easy so far. Goal: Reduce hits and sacks on Maye.
Denver Broncos (8-2) — Playoffs: 91.7% | AFC West: 44.6% | Super Bowl: 12.2%
Bo Nix uneven but defense elite; 8-2 start makes playoffs likely. Goal: Improve special teams reliability.
Tier 4: Likely in, barring a collapse
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) — Playoffs: 92.1% | NFC South: 90.8% | Super Bowl: 8.8%
Baker Mayfield hot, rookie Egbuka emergent despite injuries. Goal: Get healthy on offense.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) — Playoffs: 84.6% | AFC West: 29.9% | Super Bowl: 10.0%
Holding despite season-ending LT injuries; OL must improve. Goal: Improve kickoff and punt coverage.
Tier 5: We’re leaning yes
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) — Playoffs: 85.5% | NFC West: 14.7% | Super Bowl: 9.6%
Limited Brock Purdy availability and losing Bosa/Warner hurt, but schedule eases up. Goal: Become a top-10 scoring offense.
Tier 6: On the fringe of hope and despair
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) — Playoffs: 41.2% | AFC North: 32.7% | Super Bowl: 2.7%
Aaron Rodgers experiment mixed; defense inconsistent. Goal: Play consistent defense.
Chicago Bears (6-3) — Playoffs: 43.7% | NFC North: 11.2% | Super Bowl: 1.9%
Offense rebounded; Caleb Williams improving. Goal: Learn to play complete games and close out opponents.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) — Playoffs: 39.6% | AFC South: 10.2% | Super Bowl: 2.0%
Ups and downs from Trevor Lawrence; schedule eases late. Goal: Fewer dropped passes; Jakobi Meyers added.
Tier 7: Stranger things have happened
Houston Texans (4-5) — Playoffs: 18.5% | AFC South: 3.8% | Super Bowl: 1.4%
Offensive line woes but elite defense and Will Anderson Jr. Goal: Get offense rolling under OC Nick Caley.
Carolina Panthers (5-5) — Playoffs: 11.9% | NFC South: 7.4% | Super Bowl: 0.2%
Defense struggles against the pass; Bryce Young keeping team close. Goal: Stay in playoff contention.
Minnesota Vikings (4-5) — Playoffs: 7.1% | NFC North: 1.3% | Super Bowl: 0.3%
J.J. McCarthy showed promise in upset vs. Lions; uphill climb remains. Goal: See what they have at QB with McCarthy.
Tier 8: Yes, I’m telling you there’s a (slight) chance
Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) — Playoffs: 5.3% | NFC East: 2.6% | Super Bowl: 0.4%
Dak Prescott strong but defense has been terrible; late trades may help longer term. Goal: Defense plays to league average over final eight games.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) — Playoffs: 6.6% | AFC North: 5.4% | Super Bowl: 0.5%
Joe Burrow injury, backup struggles and weak defense. Goal: Identify young defensive pieces to build around.
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) — Playoffs: 3.8% | NFC South: 1.6% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Michael Penix Jr. shows flashes; defense middling. Goal: Continue developing Penix.
Washington Commanders (3-7) — Playoffs: 1.2% | NFC East: 1.1% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Jayden Daniels injured; defense poor. Goal: Improve defense and get key receivers healthy.
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) — Playoffs: 1.7% | NFC West: 0.1% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Kyler Murray on IR; Jacoby Brissett stepping in. Goal: Win more than they lose or play for evaluation/draft positioning.
Tier 9: Rest up for 2026
Miami Dolphins (3-7) — Playoffs: 0.5%
Tyreek Hill out for season, Tua struggling; front office made trades. Goal: Go .500 over final eight games to show fight and stabilize coach’s future.
New York Giants (2-8) — Playoffs: 0.2%
Rookie Jaxson Dart promising but injuries and schedule tough. Goal: Be respectable and keep Dart healthy.
New Orleans Saints (2-8) — Playoffs: 0.3%
Season to evaluate rookie Tyler Shough and QB options for 2026. Goal: Develop Shough.
New York Jets (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Deadline trades signal focus on 2026; QB overhaul likely. Goal: Finish as a top-20 scoring offense.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Geno Smith struggles, offense and defense underwhelming. Goal: Improve across the board, build on any offensive progress.
Cleveland Browns (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Rookie QBs haven’t solidified long-term answers; strong rookie class elsewhere on roster. Goal: Evaluate Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders for the future.
Tennessee Titans (1-8) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Cam Ward rookie year rocky; coaching change enacted. Goal: Develop Ward for Year 2.
Notes: Records, FPI playoff/division/Super Bowl percentages reflect the season status at the time of this snapshot. Reporters’ tangible second‑half goals reflect realistic near‑term objectives for each team.
