It was an “almost” sort of Saturday: Indiana survived at Penn State on Omar Cooper Jr.’s toe-tap; Oregon escaped Iowa with an Atticus Sappington field goal; Auburn lost in overtime after Diego Pavia’s heroics; North Dakota State and Ferris State each trailed late but rallied. There were still upsets — two more top-15 ACC losses, Washington falling to Wisconsin, Hawai’i knocking San Diego State out of contention — but Week 11 offered clarity in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Using an average CFP odds formula combining the Allstate Playoff Predictor and SP+ projections, eight teams sit above about an 81% chance of making the 12-team field. With three Saturdays left before Championship Week, here are contenders split into tiers and their most toxic traits — the flaws most likely to keep them from winning a title or even reaching the CFP.
Tier 1
These three teams are nearly locked into the CFP; flaws would more likely prevent a national title than selection.
Indiana (avg CFP odds 99.9%): Big-play glitches. IU’s defense is excellent overall, but allowed several explosive plays Saturday (notably a 59-yard run) and gave up six completions of 19+ yards. A single costly turnover or a flurry of splash plays could derail tight playoff games.
Ohio State (99.6%): A merely decent run game. The Buckeyes boast elite defense and a prolific passing game, but their rushing attack is effective without being dominant. If defenses force OSU into one-dimensional passing battles, particularly in the Big Ten title game or CFP matchups, freshman QB Julian Sayin could shoulder too much load.
Texas A&M (99.3%): Run defense. A&M’s pass rush and spacing are strong, but opponents often gashed them on the ground; they rank near the bottom in yards allowed per carry. That vulnerability would be exposed in a deep playoff run against physical rushing teams.
Tier 2
One-loss teams that are still in serious contention but have clearer paths to elimination.
Texas Tech (90.1%): Quarterback stability. Behren Morton has played well against a light schedule but is injury-prone and only middling in Total QBR. Tech scores often but is vulnerable to good defenses and three-and-outs.
Ole Miss (87.7%): Run game inconsistency. Trinidad Chambliss adds a dual threat, and Kewan Lacy is productive, but the Rebels average about 4.8 yards per carry and rely heavily on the pass. Lack of a solid Plan B could sink them in the playoffs.
Oregon (87.0%): No easy points vs. good defenses. Dante Moore thrives against average teams but has struggled to generate chunk passing in games versus top defenses. Can Oregon keep scoring when the big throws are harder to come by?
Georgia (85.4%): Defense slow to start. The Dawgs dominate late but rank poorly in first-half defensive metrics. Taking 30–45 minutes to “wake up” won’t work against elite playoff opponents.
Alabama (81.0%): No run game. Bama’s rushing offense is weak, forcing reliance on Ty Simpson’s passing. In the postseason, lacking consistent ground production could limit offensive balance.
Tier 3
Teams with one or two losses that have real but diminished CFP prospects.
Notre Dame (59.6%): Third-and-long issues. The Irish often face long-yardage third downs and allow too many third-and-long conversions on defense. They convert frequently now, but against elite opponents that may not hold.
BYU (45.4%): Not enough offensive threat vs. top defenses. Bear Bachmeier has been promising, but the Cougars struggled for big plays and averaged just 4.8 yards per play against two top-30 defenses.
Georgia Tech (37.4%): Defense. The Yellow Jackets’ offense hums, but their defense ranks poorly in efficiency and explosiveness allowed; Week 10’s loss exposed that flaw and it could resurface.
Tier 4a: Non-ACC teams
These teams need to win out to have solid resumes; SP+ gives few realistic odds of doing so.
Texas (28.0%): Negative plays. Offensive-line issues and pressures have led to a high rate of stuffs and negative-yard plays. Arch Manning’s slow process behind a shaky line hampers consistency.
Oklahoma (27.0%): Offensive mistakes. The defense is strong, but the offense suffers from too many negative plays, low big-play rate, and turnovers.
Utah (25.6%): Untrustworthy explosiveness. Dominant in wins but stagnant and turnover-prone in losses. Devon Dampier posts modest per-completion numbers; Utah may lack the easy points needed late.
Vanderbilt (25.5%): Fading defense. The Commodores’ offense can win shootouts, but recent defensive regressions in completion rate and coverage make sustained runs unlikely.
USC (15.8%): Run defense. The Trojans run a competent offense but a very passive run defense ranks near the bottom in rushing success rate allowed, making them vulnerable to teams like Iowa and Oregon.
Michigan (7.6%): Risk-averse offense. Bryce Underwood’s conservative game and low completion rate limit upside; Michigan prevents big plays but doesn’t create many offensive ones.
Tier 4b: ACC teams
The ACC title race is muddled; many teams can still emerge, but each carries fatal flaws.
Miami (15.7%): Not enough big plays. The offense underperformed projections repeatedly, lacking explosiveness to close big games.
Virginia (14.5%): Offense has run out of juice. After a strong start the Cavs’ efficiency and points per drive have fallen sharply; an injured Chandler Morris compounds the problem.
SMU (11.8%): Alls vs. nothings. Chunk plays arrive, but overall success rate and three-and-out rate are poor, making wins fragile against better defenses.
Louisville (8.1%): Negative plays. A high percentage of snaps gaining zero or negative yards plagues the offense; injuries and line play compound the issue.
Pittsburgh (7.8%): Red zone and turnovers. Pitt’s defense forces many three-and-outs, but red-zone TD rate allowed is poor and the offense turns the ball over too often.
Tier (Group of) 5
AAC and Group of Five contenders with steeper paths.
James Madison (34.3%): Turnovers and short fields. JMU’s defense is stout, but turnovers, special teams breakdowns and short-field scores against top offenses are the concern.
North Texas (28.3%): Run defense. The Mean Green can score prolifically, but their run defense has delivered blowups (306 yards allowed in lone loss) that could doom them.
South Florida (22.4%): Soft pass defense. USF defends the run well and can score, but opponents have completed a high percentage of passes in their losses.
Tulane (7.5%): Defensive inconsistency. Talented team with marquee wins, but the defense ranks poorly in success rate allowed and has no-showed in certain losses.
This week in SP+
Biggest movers up: Hawai’i (+4.1 points, from 90th to 72nd), Utah State (+3.3), Akron (+3.1), FIU (+3.1), Kentucky (+3.1). Hawai’i’s blowout of SDSU and Kentucky’s second-half surge were notable.
Biggest movers down: San Diego State (−4.5, 44th to 56th), Navy (−4.0), Florida (−3.1), Nevada (−2.8), BYU (−2.8). BYU’s struggles in Lubbock, including a pivotal interception and lost fumble, dented its offensive SP+ ranking.
Heisman this week
Weekly Heisman top 10 (F1-style points): 1) Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt — classic Pavia performance (passing and rushing) in OT win. 2) Emmett Johnson, Nebraska. 3) Jake Retzlaff, Tulane. 4) Byrum Brown, USF. 5) Ashton Daniels, Auburn. 6) Bryun Parham, UConn (defense). 7) Julian Sayin, Ohio State. 8) Isaiah Smith, SMU (pass rusher). 9) Beau Sparks, Texas State. 10) Antwan Raymond, Rutgers. Through 11 weeks, Julian Sayin and Ty Simpson share the points lead (29 each), with Taylen Green at 27 and Trinidad Chambliss at 25.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. Indiana 27, Penn State 24 — a brilliant finish and a breathtaking catch to win it.
2–3. Division II OT thrillers: Ferris State 51, Saginaw Valley State 45 (2OT); Colorado State–Pueblo 41, Colorado Mines 34 (OT).
4. Delaware 25, Louisiana Tech 24 — late onside recovery and 51-yard game-winner.
5. Oregon 18, Iowa 16 — windy November game, clutch kicking.
6. Vanderbilt 45, Auburn 38 (OT) — Vandy rallied and survived.
7–8. FCS classics: Montana 29, Eastern Washington 24; North Dakota State 15, North Dakota 10 — late-game defense sealed both.
9. UConn 37, Duke 34 — 12 lead changes, late strip-recovery.
10. Sam Houston 21, Oregon State 17 — incredible comeback despite a 474–157 yardage gap; special-teams and turnovers swung it.
Honorable mentions: Chadron State over Western Colorado (D-II OT), Mercer over Western Carolina (FCS), William & Mary over Campbell (OT), Tulane over Memphis (Friday), Wisconsin over Washington, and Army’s clock-killing 18-play final drive in a 14–13 win over Temple.
The midweek playlist
Ohio at Western Michigan (Tuesday, 8 p.m., ESPN2). MAC title odds are tight: Ohio 22.2%, Toledo 20.2%, Western Michigan 20.1%, Miami 19.2%, Buffalo 16.7%. Tuesday’s winner should move ahead in the conference race.
