Baseball’s box score is simple: score runs, avoid outs. Those raw numbers create narratives we track all season, and each spring invites the same question — who will leap forward in 2026?
Unpredictable arcs are why we watch: Cal Raleigh erupting for 60 homers, Tarik Skubal accelerating into ace territory, Garrett Crochet converting from high-leverage reliever to Opening Day starter, and rookie Nick Kurtz turning into an instant slugger. Below are preseason “Real or Not” takes on eight players who could headline next year.
Shohei Ohtani — 50 homers and 20 wins
Case: Ohtani’s 50/50 campaign was one of the most extraordinary single-season achievements in recent memory. With a renewed pitching plan that includes more starts, he looks committed to being a two-way force. There are historical precedents of pitchers reaching 20 wins with fewer than 30 starts when surrounded by elite run support and bullpen help.
Verdict: Not Real. A Cy Young-level pitching season is within reach, but modern innings limits and workload management make a 20-win season unlikely. The Dodgers will protect him late in the year, reducing decisions and making a repeat 50/20 improbable.
Aaron Judge — 63 homers and a Triple Crown
Case: Judge remains a complete hitter at 34, capable of another mammoth power year. He already owns multiple 50-homer seasons and just won a batting title, so the profile for a huge offensive year exists.
Verdict: Not Real. A Triple Crown is exceedingly rare and 63 homers would be a sizable jump from last season. Expect another 50-plus homer campaign and a strong MVP argument, but not both the Triple Crown and 63 homers.
Bobby Witt Jr. — 92 extra-base hits
Case: A-Rod’s shortstop record is 91 extra-base hits in 1996. Witt had 88 in 2024 then dipped in 2025 as average fell, but he’s still young and maturing. The Royals’ right-field corner and alley adjustments could turn enough fly balls into homers and doubles to boost his totals, and a 30–40 homer range is plausible.
Verdict: Real. Witt’s combination of age, improving power, and the park tweaks put 92 extra-base hits squarely within reach.
Paul Skenes — sub-2.00 ERA again
Case: Skenes posted a 1.96 ERA as a rookie and a 1.97 in his sophomore year — historic production over two seasons. He has elite velocity, command, multiple weapons and maturity far beyond his years.
Verdict: Real. While another couple of blowups could push his ERA above 2.00, his consistency and dominance make a repeat sub-2.00 season plausible in 2026.
Juan Soto — a 40/40 season
Case: Soto flirted with 40/40 in 2025 (43 homers, 38 steals) and showed advanced baserunning instincts down the stretch. His late-season numbers point to a hitter capable of doing both power and speed if he sustains that approach for a full year.
Verdict: Real. Soto’s stolen-base surge wasn’t a fluke; with similar health and usage, a true 40/40 campaign is attainable and would come with an MVP resume.
Mason Miller — sub-.100 opponent batting average
Case: Miller held opponents to .139 in 2025 and showed stretches of extreme dominance, including tiny averages during certain months. With a mid-100s fastball and swing-and-miss stuff, he profiles as a high-velocity, high-K reliever.
Verdict: Not Real. Maintaining a sub-.100 opponent average over a reasonable workload is historically unprecedented for relievers. Miller can dominate, but dipping under .100 across a season requires exceptional luck on top of elite performance.
Nick Kurtz — second-youngest player to hit 50 homers
Case: Kurtz mashed 36 homers in 117 games as a 22-year-old, a pace that projects near the 50-homer range over a full season. He showed prodigious raw power, though he struggles against left-hand pitching and still must refine approach and consistency.
Verdict: Not Real. Kurtz will likely hit 50 in his career, but 2026 feels aggressive. Adjustments vs. lefties and plate-discipline work make a 45-homer forecast more realistic for next season.
Junior Caminero — youngest player to hit 50 homers
Case: Caminero hit 45 homers at 21, trailing only Eddie Mathews historically. He increased launch angle and pull rate while cutting swing-and-miss, signaling a translated power profile.
Verdict: Not Real. The raw tools and bat speed suggest a future 50-homer ceiling, but park factors, a high chase rate, and GIDP tendencies make a 50-homer year at age 22 unlikely in 2026.
Conclusion
Baseball thrives on surprise and adjustment. Some of these bold forecasts feel believable — Skenes repeating an otherworldly ERA, Soto turning late-season baserunning into a full 40/40, and Witt taking advantage of park tweaks to push his extra-base totals. Others falter against modern workload management, park effects, and matchup adjustments — Ohtani’s 20 wins, Judge’s Triple Crown plus 63 homers, Miller’s sub-.100 opponent average, and two 50-homer seasons from very young sluggers are all steep climbs.
That mix of plausibility and improbability is exactly what makes the 162-game grind compelling. Expect surprises, counterpunches, and a few runaway seasons that we didn’t fully predict — and enjoy watching which of these preseason bets pays off.
