Which games look worth betting early? Four analysts — Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder — examined Week 11 lines and flagged spots they like before lines move later in the week.
Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-115) at Pittsburgh Steelers — Matt Bowen
Bowen points to Cincinnati’s Week 7 win over Pittsburgh, when Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns and Ja’Marr Chase dominated the perimeter (16 catches, 161 yards, 1 TD). With the Bengals’ defense still below average, this game projects to force Cincinnati into pass-heavy, high-volume situations where perimeter matchups favor them. Bowen prefers the points and the Bengals’ ability to keep it competitive in a game that could require chasing by Pittsburgh.
Last week (Bowen): Browns +2.5 at Jets (Jets won, 27-20)
Chicago Bears–Minnesota Vikings UNDER 48.5 (-115) — Pamela Maldonado
Maldonado emphasizes Minnesota’s offensive inefficiency on third downs — converting roughly 32% — which makes sustained drives and consistent scoring difficult. Chicago’s offense operates in a methodical, controlled manner rather than with quick-strike downfield plays, and Minnesota’s reliance on Justin Jefferson plus turnover issues often produces stalled drives and more punts. That combination suggests a slower tempo and fewer scoring possessions, making the under attractive.
Last week (Maldonado): Rams-49ers UNDER 50.5 (Rams won, 42-26)
Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders — Ben Solak
Solak is cautious about overreacting to Miami’s upset but sees value in buying the hook now. He points to the Commanders’ defensive disarray and Miami’s improved offensive consistency over the past month even without Tyreek Hill. Solak also favors Tua Tagovailoa when he’s in a favorable setting. Expecting the line to settle around three points by kickoff, he’s comfortable grabbing -2.5 early rather than risk losing the half-point.
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+600) — Seth Walder
Walder remains committed to Mahomes after last week’s same wager, now available at longer odds. Mahomes sits second in QBR this season, ahead of some quarterbacks priced with shorter MVP odds (for example, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford). Walder doubts the “weak schedule” narrative will hold for Maye with voters, and notes the market undervalues Mahomes relative to his production — even equating his odds to those of lower-impact positions. He sees value in Mahomes at +600.
Last week (Walder): Mahomes to win MVP (+425)
Summary
These are early-season action points meant to be taken before lines move. Bowen likes the Bengals getting points in a game that could feature volume passing and perimeter advantages. Maldonado prefers the Bears–Vikings under because of Minnesota’s third-down struggles and a projected slower pace. Solak is willing to buy the half-point on Miami versus Washington given the Commanders’ defensive issues and Miami’s recent offensive steadiness. Walder continues to back Patrick Mahomes for MVP, believing the odds understate his standing.
Remember lines can shift as injuries, weather, and betting percentages come in. Odds listed above were current at publication via ESPN BET Sportsbook.”}