Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola head into the Carabao Cup final with very different recent histories and reasons to crave victory.
Arsenal have not won silverware since beating Chelsea in the 2020 FA Cup final — a triumph that came nine months after Arteta left Guardiola’s Manchester City coaching staff to take charge at the Emirates. Since then Guardiola has added a lengthy list of trophies to City’s cabinet, including the Champions League, four Premier League titles, the FA Cup, the EFL Cup, plus the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup. By contrast, Arsenal have repeatedly fallen short: defeat to Villarreal in the 2021 Europa League semi-final, EFL Cup semi-final exits to Liverpool in 2022 and Newcastle in 2025, and elimination from last season’s Champions League semi-final by eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain.
Reaching this final therefore interrupts a pattern of near-misses for Arsenal, but Arteta also has a more direct problem in his head-to-head record against Guardiola. He has won just four of their last 16 encounters (one of those being the 2023 Community Shield) and lost nine, a stat that underlines how much a high-profile win over City would mean for him and his squad.
Former Arsenal and England defender Matt Upson told BBC Sport that Arteta arguably needs this trophy most because his team have performed strongly without collecting enough silverware. Upson said it has been a case of “nearly but not quite” for Arteta after seasons finishing second in the Premier League, and that a cup would be a significant breakthrough. He added that there is also immediate pressure on City to halt Arsenal’s momentum, suggesting a City win could dent Arsenal’s confidence heading into the final stretch of the season.
Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha stressed the importance of the final for City as well, framing it as a chance to respond after their Champions League exit. He said City could channel the disappointment of elimination against Real into motivation at Wembley, and that winning a trophy before the international break could change perceptions of their season.
Upson also warned of the psychological impact of an Arsenal win: beating City in a Wembley final would be a major statement and could be more damaging to City than the reverse. He suggested Arteta’s pragmatic approach — doing whatever it takes to win the league — is now ingrained in his players and producing results.
Theo Walcott told BBC Radio 5 Live that the match could set the tone for Arsenal’s season, calling it “the game” that could shape how the rest of the year looks for the club. He predicted both teams might drop points in the league, making this cup final particularly decisive.
Onuoha concluded that the outcome could swing momentum either way: a City loss might leave them emotionally fragile during the international break, while victory would give them a lift against the team chasing them in the title race. For Arsenal, a win would confirm progress and deliver a big psychological boost. In short, the Carabao Cup final matters hugely to both managers and their clubs, albeit for slightly different reasons.
