The NHL regular season is roughly a month from the finish line, and as fans fill out brackets after Selection Sunday the hunt for a Cinderella is on. Last spring’s Panthers were the ultimate No. 1 bracket buster — last team in, all the way to the Final — so who might play that role this year?
Eastern wild-card picture
Boston (80 points) sits in the first wild-card spot and plays New Jersey Monday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). If Boston holds WC1, it will face the Atlantic division winner with the lower point total. Boston’s head-to-head ties this season include a 2-1-0 edge on Buffalo, 0-1-1 vs. Tampa Bay (two meetings remaining) and 1-1-0 vs. Carolina (one left).
Detroit (80 points) occupies the second wild-card slot but has struggled in head-to-head matchups with key rivals: 1-2-0 vs. Carolina, 0-1-1 vs. Buffalo (one game left) and 1-2-0 vs. Tampa Bay (one left).
Columbus (79 points) is close behind Detroit. The Blue Jackets are 2-0-0 vs. Buffalo (one meeting left) and 3-0-0 vs. Tampa Bay, and while they lost their only game to Carolina, three games remain between those clubs.
Stathletes’ playoff-progression model tilts toward Columbus among the Boston/Detroit/Columbus group: Columbus projects to advance to the second round 57.0% of the time, to the conference finals 25.4%, to the Stanley Cup Final 12.1% and to win the Cup 6.0%.
Western wild-card picture
In the West, the likely WC1 would draw the Pacific Division winner, a route that currently looks easier than meeting a top Central club. Pacific leaders sit in the mid-70s in points while Central leaders, led by Colorado, are well into the high-80s and 90s.
San Jose (70 points) currently holds a wild-card slot in the West and is 1-2 vs. Colorado this season. Seattle (71 points) has one game left vs. Colorado and lost its previous two meetings with the Avalanche. Los Angeles (69 points) is 0-3 vs. Colorado.
Utah (74 points) is listed as the Western WC1 in the snapshot. Utah is 1-1-0 vs. Vegas (one meeting left), 1-0-1 vs. Anaheim (one left) and 0-1-0 vs. Edmonton (two left). Stathletes gives Utah the best odds among that Pacific group: second round 46.5%, conference finals 25.2%, Cup Final 13.0% and Cup champion 6.3%.
Schedule and context
Most teams have about 14–17 games remaining ahead of the April 16 regular-season finale. This daily NHL playoff watch will follow the shifting playoff races and the draft-lottery picture. Playoff chances cited here come from Stathletes.
Projected first-round matchups (current picture)
Eastern Conference
– A1 Buffalo Sabres vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
– A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens
– M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
– M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders
Western Conference
– C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Seattle Kraken
– C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
– P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
– P2 Vegas Golden Knights vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Today’s schedule (all times ET)
– Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
– Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
– Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
– Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
– Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Yesterday’s scoreboard
Winnipeg 3, St. Louis 2
Ottawa 7, San Jose 4
Anaheim 4, Montreal 3
Toronto 4, Minnesota 2
Edmonton 3, Nashville 1
Seattle 6, Florida 2
Selected expanded standings (points, games left, Stathletes playoff chance)
Atlantic
– Buffalo Sabres — 88 points; 15 games left; playoff chances 99.6%
– Tampa Bay Lightning — 84 points; 17 games left; playoff chances 99.8%
– Montreal Canadiens — 82 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 90.8%
– Boston Bruins — 80 points; WC1; 16 games left; playoff chances 74.6%
– Detroit Red Wings — 80 points; WC2; 15 games left; playoff chances 34.5%
Metropolitan
– Carolina Hurricanes — 90 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 99.9%
– Pittsburgh Penguins — 81 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 65.3%
– New York Islanders — 81 points; 15 games left; playoff chances 73.7%
– Columbus Blue Jackets — 79 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 84.1%
Central
– Colorado Avalanche — 97 points; 17 games left; playoff chances 99.9%
– Dallas Stars — 94 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 99.9%
– Minnesota Wild — 88 points; 14 games left; playoff chances 99.9%
– Utah Mammoth — 74 points; WC1; 15 games left; playoff chances 93.5%
Pacific
– Anaheim Ducks — 77 points; 15 games left; playoff chances 96.6%
– Vegas Golden Knights — 76 points; 15 games left; playoff chances 99.3%
– Edmonton Oilers — 75 points; 14 games left; playoff chances 82.5%
– Seattle Kraken — 71 points; WC2; 16 games left; playoff chances 11.1%
– San Jose Sharks — 70 points; 17 games left; playoff chances 80.3%
– Los Angeles Kings — 69 points; 16 games left; playoff chances 24.8%
Race for the No. 1 pick
The top draft slot is decided by the lottery — last place in the standings does not guarantee the No. 1 overall selection, and a club can move up a maximum of 10 spots. Top prospect in many scouts’ boards is Penn State forward Gavin McKenna.
Current lottery positions (selected):
1. Vancouver Canucks — 48 points
2. Calgary Flames — 59 points
3. Chicago Blackhawks — 61 points
4. St. Louis Blues — 64 points
5. New York Rangers — 64 points
6. Winnipeg Jets — 66 points
7. Nashville Predators — 67 points
8. New Jersey Devils — 68 points
9. Los Angeles Kings — 69 points
10. Florida Panthers — 69 points
11. Toronto Maple Leafs* — 70 points (note: Leafs’ pick belongs to Boston unless it lands in the top five)
Who’s the likely bracket buster?
Right now the models point to Columbus out of the East and Utah out of the West as teams with the best Cup-progression odds among the wild-card contenders. But with two to three weeks of games and lots of head-to-head matchups remaining, the wild-card race can swing quickly — and that’s where a bracket buster can emerge.
Follow this daily NHL playoff watch as the regular season winds down and the playoff bracket — and any potential Cinderella runs — become clearer.
