Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will be desperate to shake off their reputation for coming up short in big moments. The Gunners and their manager have not won a trophy since beating Chelsea in the 2020 FA Cup final — a victory that came nine months after Arteta left Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City staff to take charge at the Emirates.
In that time Guardiola has added the Champions League, four Premier League titles, the FA Cup and the EFL Cup to his cabinet, along with the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup. By contrast, Arsenal have repeatedly fallen just short: losing to Villarreal in the 2021 Europa League semi-final, exiting EFL Cup semis to Liverpool in 2022 and Newcastle in 2025, and being knocked out of last season’s Champions League semi-final by eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain.
Reaching this final ends that recent pattern of near-misses for Arsenal, but Arteta also needs to make headway against Guardiola directly — he has won only four of their last 16 meetings (including the 2023 Community Shield) and lost nine. That record, and Arsenal’s wider trophy drought, suggests Arteta may have the greater need for a win.
Former Arsenal and England defender Matt Upson told BBC Sport that Arteta needs the trophy most because of how well his side have performed without collecting enough silverware. “It has been a case of ‘nearly but not quite’ for Arteta after the seasons in which they have finished second in the Premier League. They have not quite got there, so this is a big one for Arteta,” Upson said. He added that while both managers have reasons to want the win, the immediate pressure is greater on Guardiola to halt Arsenal’s momentum: “It is very important City get that win to try and at least dent Arsenal’s confidence. That would be really helpful for them in the last eight games of the season.”
Former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha argued the final is also hugely significant for City as a chance to respond after their Champions League exit. “City have just had the pain of defeat in the Champions League, but they can use that in the Carabao Cup final to express how much going out to Real has hurt them, and potentially take that and use it at Wembley,” he said. Winning the cup before the international break could change how the whole season is perceived for City.
Upson added that an Arsenal victory would be a major psychological statement: “To beat City in a Wembley final would be massive. It would be a big psychological blow — more to City than vice-versa.” He suggested Arsenal’s pragmatic approach is driven by a clear aim: “Arteta has looked at it and asked himself, ‘how are we definitely going to win the Premier League?’ If it has to be like this they are going to do it unapologetically. It is ingrained in the players and they are winning.”
Theo Walcott told BBC Radio 5 Live’s Monday Night Club that the match could shape the immediate future for Arsenal. “That’s the game,” he said. “That’s the one that essentially sets the tone for how this whole year is going to look for Arsenal.” Walcott predicted both sides would drop points in the league but that the cup final between them will be decisive.
Onuoha concluded that the outcome could swing momentum for either club: lose and City might struggle emotionally during the international break; win and they would gain a lift against the team they are chasing in the league. Conversely, a win for Arsenal would confirm their progress and deliver a significant psychological boost. Either way, the Carabao Cup final carries major significance for both managers and their clubs.
