The 2026 men's NCAA tournament is approaching fast. Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to improve their cases. We track the bubble using a consensus of bracketology forecasts and core résumé metrics (NET, Quadrant wins, résumé ranking). For at-large projection purposes (assuming a team doesn't win its conference tournament) we classify teams as Locks (virtually certain), Should be in (generally ≥75% consensus odds) and Work to do (results still could swing their fate).
Current snapshot: Locks — 29 teams. Should be in — 11 teams. Work to do — 15 teams.
SEC — 10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large) Locks (6): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky. Should be in (3): - Georgia — signature victories and six Q1 wins have consensus odds in the high 90s. Next: at Mississippi State. - Missouri — on a strong run with five Q1 wins and a top-40 résumé; about 90% odds. Next: vs. Arkansas. - Texas — six Q1 wins and rising model support (~81%); résumé sits near the top of the league. Next: at Arkansas. Work to do (2): - Texas A&M — recent setbacks trimmed projections despite a home win over Kentucky; consensus around 73% with fiv
