You know the routine: after the conference finals I and my colleagues often fill out a bracket on air in under five minutes. Here I give you more time and reasoning to use in your pools. Last season was chalky — all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four — but 2026 looks more open. The top teams aren’t as overpowering, so expect volatility. Back upsets you genuinely trust and avoid long, lottery-ticket runs. Below are my best guesses, region by region, with short explanations.
EAST REGION
First round 1 Duke over 16 Siena — Take the 1 seed; Duke’s talent edge, led by Cameron Boozer, matters. 9 TCU over 8 Ohio State — Toss-up; I lean TCU. 5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa — St. John’s is underseeded and not a typical upset target under Rick Pitino. 4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist — Kansas’ rim protection and experience win out. 11 South Florida over 6 Louisville — Upset pick while Louisville is banged up. 3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State — Tom Izzo in March is dangerous. 10 UCF over 7 UCLA — UCLA’s injuries make UCF a viable flier. 2 UConn over 15 Furman — Interior advantage favors UConn.
Second round 1 Duke over 9 TCU — If healthy, Duke’s depth carries them. 5 St. John’s o
