Jay Bilas Mar 16, 2026, 09:00 AM ET
You already know the drill. After calling the SEC championship game we each fill out a bracket on air in under five minutes. I gave you more time so you can be strategic rather than flashy. Last season my bracket was chalky and correct; this season is different — top teams are closer, so pick only the upsets you truly believe in. Here are my best guesses. Use your judgment. And remember: This is supposed to be fun.
EAST REGION
First round
1 Duke over 16 Siena — Take the No. 1; Duke’s depth and Cameron Boozer matter.
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State — Coin flip; take TCU.
5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa — St. John’s too strong; Rick Pitino seldom loses round one.
4 Kansas over 13 California Baptist — Kansas’ rim protection with Flory Bidunga.
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville — Upset pick: USF is tough and Mikel Brown Jr. out for Louisville.
3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State — Tom Izzo in March.
10 UCF over 7 UCLA — UCLA banged up; UCF worth a flier.
2 UConn over 15 Furman — UConn’s interior edges Furman.
Second round
1 Duke over 9 TCU — Even banged up, Duke advances.
5 St. John’s over 4 Kansas — St. John’s can beat Kansas.
3 Michigan State over 11 South Florida — Jeremy Fears Jr. is the difference.
2 UConn over 10 UCF — Huskies into second weekend.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 5 St. John’s — Depends on Duke’s health (Patrick Ngongba II).
3 Michigan State over 2 UConn — I like the Spartans’ draw and fight.
Elite Eight
3 Michigan State over 1 Duke — MSU avenges earlier loss; Izzo’s teams show up.
SOUTH REGION
First round
1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh — Florida’s size inside.
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson — Bennett Stirtz is a difference-maker.
5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese — Vandy’s guards too good.
4 Nebraska over 13 Troy — Nebraska ends its NCAA drought.
6 North Carolina over 11 VCU — UNC better despite Caleb Wilson’s absence; VCU is a pickable upset.
3 Illinois over 14 Penn — Illinois’ offense and Keaton Wagler prevail.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M — Gaels’ slow pace causes problems.
2 Houston over 15 Idaho — Houston’s defense too strong.
Second round
1 Florida over 9 Iowa — Size and frontcourt depth favor Florida.
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska — Vanderbilt’s guards make the difference.
3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina — Illinois’ scoring depth too much.
2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s — Cougars handle different styles.
Sweet 16
1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt — Florida’s size and desire for payback.
3 Illinois over 2 Houston — I prefer Illinois’ offense; they can shoot over Florida/Houston bigs.
Elite Eight
3 Illinois over 1 Florida — Guards win in March; Illinois’ backcourt depth matters.
WEST REGION
First round
1 Arizona over 16 LIU — Arizona too talented.
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova — Coin flip; take Utah State.
5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point — Wisconsin’s guards and balance.
4 Arkansas over 13 Hawai‘i — Arkansas’ freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is a star.
11 Texas over 6 BYU — Take Texas as a flier over BYU.
3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State — Zags historically advance.
10 Missouri over 7 Miami — Upset pick: Missouri’s Mark Mitchell.
2 Purdue over 15 Queens — Purdue’s experience and Braden Smith.
Second round
1 Arizona over 9 Utah State — Arizona’s size and recent form.
4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin — Acuff Jr. carries Arkansas.
11 Texas over 3 Gonzaga — Texas sneaks one; Zags without Braden Huff are limited.
2 Purdue over 10 Missouri — Purdue’s Braden Smith separates.
Sweet 16
1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas — Arizona’s overall talent edges Arkansas in a matchup of top freshmen.
2 Purdue over 11 Texas — Purdue’s balance and guard play prevail.
Elite Eight
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue — Arizona’s talent and size push them through.
MIDWEST REGION
First round
1 Michigan over 16 UMBC / Howard — 16-seeds are long shots.
8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis — Georgia’s athleticism.
5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron — Zags’ shooters and depth favor Texas Tech.
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra — Labaron Philon Jr. is the best player on the floor.
6 Tennessee over 11 Miami (OH) / SMU — Tennessee’s defense under Rick Barnes.
3 Virginia over 14 Wright State — Virginia’s defense wins.
7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara — Kentucky banged up but advances.
2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State — Cyclones’ defense is elite.
Second round
1 Michigan over 8 Georgia — Michigan’s star power prevails.
4 Alabama over 5 Texas Tech — Alabama’s shotmaking wins out.
6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia — Tennessee’s physicality and offensive rebounding.
2 Iowa State over 7 Kentucky — Cyclones’ two-way star Joshua Jefferson leads the way.
Sweet 16
1 Michigan over 4 Alabama — Michigan is the region’s best; Yaxel Lendeborg a factor.
2 Iowa State over 6 Tennessee — Iowa State’s defense forces turnovers and controls the game.
Elite Eight
2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan — Without L.J. Cason, Iowa State’s defense and cohesion win this region.
FINAL FOUR
Midwest winner Iowa State vs. East winner Michigan State
3 Michigan State over 3 Illinois — Izzo prepares his team; MSU’s defense holds.
West winner Arizona vs. Midwest winner Iowa State
1 Arizona over 2 Iowa State — Arizona’s talent and depth get to the Final Four and beyond.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
1 Arizona over 3 Michigan State — In the battle of droughts, Arizona wins its first championship in nearly 20 years.
Winner: Arizona