Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM ET
After an agonizingly long wait, the NCAA basketball tournament is here. Headlined by No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida — plus the usual blue bloods, some new faces and a few potential Cinderellas — there are plenty of betting opportunities. Several top seeds are title favorites: Duke (+330), Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), Florida (+700), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1700) (odds via DraftKings at time of publish).
Our analysts, researchers and editors reveal favorite early bets from first-round plays to futures on who advances deep.
First-round matchups
(11) VCU (+120) over (6) North Carolina
Kevin Pulsifer (researcher): North Carolina isn’t the same squad without Caleb Wilson, whose injury has capped UNC’s ceiling. The Tar Heels have one road win without him against a weak Syracuse team. VCU, by contrast, gets to the free-throw line at a top-20 rate and played a tough nonconference slate, including a close game at NC State and an 18-point neutral-court win over Virginia Tech. If the tournament whistle is tight, VCU’s ability to draw fouls and play aggressive on offense could neutralize UNC’s defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated.
(12) High Point (+11.5) over (5) Wisconsin
Mark Zinno (analyst): This is a prototypical 5-12 upset candidate. High Point scores at a blistering pace (over 90 PPG), plays with excellent ball movement, and boasts strong perimeter defense (holding opponents to 31.9% from deep). Wisconsin’s defense is middling on effective field-goal and 3-point defense, and the Badgers rely heavily on 3s. High Point forces turnovers (fifth-most nationally) and is on a 14-game winning streak, making them a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin.
(7) Miami (-2.5) over (10) Missouri
Keith Lipscomb (editor): Location matters less in March. Miami has been solid at both ends and excels on the glass; Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau present size matchup problems for Missouri. Miami has a 10-5 road/neutral record with losses to quality teams, while Missouri is 5-9 away, including a 91-48 loss in the very building hosting this matchup. Expect a physical Miami plan to slow down Mark Mitchell and force Missouri to find other scorers.
(8) Georgia vs (9) Saint Louis under 171.5
Mackenzie Kraemer (researcher): First-round unders have hit heavily in recent tournaments when totals are high. The Billikens’ offense has dipped over the last 10 games and Georgia’s pace has slowed significantly. With only a handful of NCAA games historically reaching 172+ points, the under on this 171.5 total looks compelling despite both teams preferring to run.
Futures
(2) UConn to make the Elite Eight (+170)
Mark Zinno: UConn may be overseeded by some, but the committee gave them a favorable draw. Furman is pesky but a poor matchup for UConn’s size and defense, and the Huskies could avoid UCLA if the bracket shakes out, instead seeing UCF in round two. A potential Sweet 16 opponent like Michigan State is winnable given UConn’s perimeter defense. UConn has a path where three consecutive wins are realistic; this is solid value.
(3) Virginia to make the Elite Eight (+310)
Kevin Pulsifer: Virginia’s defense is elite inside and out, exemplified by holding Cameron Boozer to 3-for-17 in the ACC title game thanks to Ugonna Onyenso and a deep rotation. They have balance on both ends and a favorable draw: a streaky Tennessee (or an inferior SMU/Miami [Ohio]) in round two and an Iowa State team that historically underperforms away from its home advantages in the Sweet 16. Virginia’s defense and matchup profile make an Elite Eight run plausible.
(7) Miami to make the Sweet 16 (+400)
Keith Lipscomb: Building on the Miami first-round pick, backing the Canes to survive the opening weekend has value. Their likely second-round test is No. 2 Purdue, fresh off a grueling Big Ten final. Miami’s physicality, rebounding and bench X-factor (Tru Washington) could make this a close, physical game. Miami’s odds to win two games are shorter than they should be given their strengths.
(2) Purdue to the Final Four (+360)
Mackenzie Kraemer: Purdue opened the season as a national title favorite and, after winning the Big Ten, remains a strong Final Four candidate. The Boilermakers boast the nation’s best offense and a relatively soft regional draw: Gonzaga and BYU enter missing pivotal players, Arizona has historically underperformed in this tourney under Tommy Lloyd, and potential Sweet 16 matchups (Wisconsin/Arkansas) could be favorable. Veterans Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn provide experience and poise that can carry Purdue through March.
Notes on approach
– First-round betting focuses on matchups, recent form and injuries (e.g., Caleb Wilson for UNC).
– Upset candidates often combine a contrasting style (e.g., high pace vs. 3-point-reliant opponent) or exploit a higher seed’s weakness.
– Futures value often comes from favorable draws, experience, defense, and depth.
Odds referenced from DraftKings Sportsbook were accurate at publication and are subject to change.
