Mar 15, 2026, 02:00 PM ET
The NCAA tournament is finally here. No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida headline the field, alongside traditional powers, rising programs and potential Cinderellas — creating lots of betting angles. At publish time, several top seeds were title favorites: Duke (+330), Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), Florida (+700), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1700) (odds via DraftKings).
Below are our analysts’, researchers’ and editors’ favorite early plays, from first-round picks to a few value futures.
First-round picks
(11) VCU (+120) over (6) North Carolina — Kevin Pulsifer (researcher)
North Carolina looks diminished without Caleb Wilson, and its ceiling has been limited since his injury; UNC’s lone road win without him came against a weak Syracuse squad. VCU, meanwhile, attacks the rim and gets to the free-throw line at a top-20 rate, played a rugged nonconference slate (including a close game at NC State and a neutral win over Virginia Tech) and won’t be cowed by the moment. If officiating is tight, VCU’s ability to draw fouls and play aggressively on offense could blunt UNC’s defensive strengths. Back the Rams.
(12) High Point (+11.5) over (5) Wisconsin — Mark Zinno (analyst)
This is a classic 5-12 upset profile. High Point scores in bunches (north of 90 PPG), pushes tempo, shares the ball well and defends the perimeter efficiently (holding opponents to roughly 31.9% from three). Wisconsin leans on the 3-point shot and has been middling defensively in key metrics; High Point forces turnovers (among the national leaders) and enters the tournament on a 14-game win streak. The matchup favors the hot, fast-feeding Panthers.
(7) Miami (-2.5) over (10) Missouri — Keith Lipscomb (editor)
Location tends to matter less in March; Miami has been reliable on both ends and dominates the glass. Size — with Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau — creates matchup problems for Missouri. Miami’s 10-5 road/neutral record includes respectable losses to quality opponents; Missouri is 5-9 away and suffered a heavy loss in the arena hosting this game. Expect a physical Miami plan to limit Mark Mitchell and make Missouri find secondary scoring options.
(8) Georgia vs (9) Saint Louis under 171.5 — Mackenzie Kraemer (researcher)
High first-round totals have trended toward the under in recent tournaments. Saint Louis’ offense has cooled in its last 10 games, and Georgia has slowed its pace considerably. Few NCAA games clear 172 total points historically, so the under on this 171.5 looks appealing even though both teams can run.
Futures (early value plays)
(2) UConn to make the Elite Eight (+170) — Mark Zinno
UConn may be underrated by some, but the committee gave them a manageable bracket. Furman presents a pesky first test but is a poor matchup for UConn’s length and defense; the Huskies could avoid heavy-caliber opponents depending on how the bracket shakes out and may see UCF in round two. A Sweet 16 matchup like Michigan State is winnable given UConn’s perimeter defense. Three realistic wins are on the table — this price offers value.
(3) Virginia to make the Elite Eight (+310) — Kevin Pulsifer
Virginia’s defensive fundamentals are elite, inside and out. Recent proof: they contained Cameron Boozer in the ACC title game, using Ugonna Onyenso and a deep rotation to limit him. They have balance offensively and a favorable draw: a streaky Tennessee (or a lesser SMU/Miami [Ohio]) in round two and an Iowa State team that often underperforms away from home in the Sweet 16. With defense and matchup advantages, Virginia’s path to the Elite Eight is believable.
(7) Miami to make the Sweet 16 (+400) — Keith Lipscomb
Following the Miami first-round pick, there’s value backing the Canes to reach the second weekend. Their likely second-round opponent is No. 2 Purdue, which comes out of a taxing Big Ten final. Miami’s physicality, rebounding edge and bench difference-maker (Tru Washington) could make that a close, grind-it-out affair. Miami’s odds to win two games look softer than they should be.
(2) Purdue to the Final Four (+360) — Mackenzie Kraemer
Purdue began the year as a title favorite and, after capturing the Big Ten, still profile as a strong Final Four contender. They lead the nation offensively and enjoy a relatively soft regional: Gonzaga and BYU are dealing with missing pieces, Arizona has a mixed tournament history under Tommy Lloyd, and potential Sweet 16 foes (Wisconsin/Arkansas) may be manageable matchups. Veteran leadership from Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn gives the Boilermakers poise for a deep run.
How we approach these bets
– First-round plays emphasize matchup specifics, recent form, injuries (e.g., Caleb Wilson for UNC) and how teams create or cut off advantages (pace, foul-drawing, turnover creation).
– Upset candidates typically combine a contrasting style (high pace vs. a 3-point-reliant opponent) or exploit a higher seed’s particular weakness.
– Futures value comes from favorable bracket paths, experience, defensive identity and depth; those factors matter more in a multi-game run than a single upset.
Odds cited from DraftKings Sportsbook were accurate at publication and are subject to change. Good luck, and bet responsibly.