I filled out a bracket with a bit more time than usual — strategic, not flashy. Top teams are tighter this year, so be selective with upsets. These are my best guesses; use your judgment and enjoy the ride.
EAST REGION
First round
1 Duke over 16 Siena — Take the top seed: depth and Cameron Boozer matter.
9 TCU over 8 Ohio State — Toss-up; I’ll take TCU.
5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa — St. John’s experience and coaching advantage.
4 Kansas over 13 California Baptist — Rim protection and size favor Kansas.
11 South Florida over 6 Louisville — Upset pick: USF is physical and Louisville is short-handed.
3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State — Izzo’s teams are built for March.
10 UCF over 7 UCLA — UCLA health is a concern; UCF is worth a flier.
2 UConn over 15 Furman — Interior matchup favors UConn.
Second round
1 Duke over 9 TCU — Even if banged up, Duke’s depth carries them.
5 St. John’s over 4 Kansas — St. John’s can exploit matchups and guard pressure.
3 Michigan State over 11 South Florida — Defensive toughness and postseason experience.
2 UConn over 10 UCF — Huskies’ inside play gets them through.
Sweet 16
1 Duke over 5 St. John’s — Health dependent, but talent edge holds.
3 Michigan State over 2 UConn — I like MSU’s fight and matchup fit.
Elite Eight
3 Michigan State over 1 Duke — Izzo’s team finds another gear and advances.
SOUTH REGION
First round
1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh — Size and frontcourt depth.
9 Iowa over 8 Clemson — Small edge to Iowa’s playmakers.
5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese — Guard play and balance.
4 Nebraska over 13 Troy — Nebraska ends its drought.
6 North Carolina over 11 VCU — UNC’s talent prevails despite injuries.
3 Illinois over 14 Penn — Offense and depth lean Illinois’ way.
7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M — Slow pace troubles A&M.
2 Houston over 15 Idaho — Defense wins early for Houston.
Second round
1 Florida over 9 Iowa — Frontcourt depth and physicality.
5 Vanderbilt over 4 Nebraska — Guards make the difference.
3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina — Illinois’ scoring depth is decisive.
2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s — Houston handles stylistic variety.
Sweet 16
1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt — Size and motivation to advance.
3 Illinois over 2 Houston — I prefer Illinois’ offensive versatility.
Elite Eight
3 Illinois over 1 Florida — Backcourt depth and consistent scoring push Illinois through.
WEST REGION
First round
1 Arizona over 16 LIU — Talent gap is wide.
9 Utah State over 8 Villanova — Toss-up; I’ll take Utah State.
5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point — Balance and veteran guards.
4 Arkansas over 13 Hawai‘i — Freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is a difference-maker.
11 Texas over 6 BYU — Take Texas as a sleeper upset.
3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State — Zags typically advance.
10 Missouri over 7 Miami — Upset pick: Missouri’s star power.
2 Purdue over 15 Queens — Experience and steady guard play.
Second round
1 Arizona over 9 Utah State — Size and form favor Arizona.
4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin — Acuff Jr. carries Arkansas.
11 Texas over 3 Gonzaga — Texas sneaks one; Gonzaga has limits without key pieces.
2 Purdue over 10 Missouri — Purdue’s balance wins out.
Sweet 16
1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas — Arizona’s overall talent edges a tough Arkansas squad.
2 Purdue over 11 Texas — Defense and guard play favor Purdue.
Elite Eight
1 Arizona over 2 Purdue — Arizona’s depth and size get them through.
MIDWEST REGION
First round
1 Michigan over 16 UMBC/Howard — Top seed advances.
8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis — Athleticism gives Georgia the edge.
5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron — Depth and shooting favor Tech.
4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra — Alabama’s lead players make the difference.
6 Tennessee over 11 Miami (OH)/SMU — Tennessee’s defense is reliable.
3 Virginia over 14 Wright State — Defense and discipline win.
7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara — Kentucky advances despite bumps.
2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State — Defense anchors Iowa State.
Second round
1 Michigan over 8 Georgia — Star power separates Michigan.
4 Alabama over 5 Texas Tech — Shotmaking and momentum.
6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia — Physicality and offensive rebounding.
2 Iowa State over 7 Kentucky — Two-way star play pushes Iowa State.
Sweet 16
1 Michigan over 4 Alabama — Michigan is the regional favorite on talent.
2 Iowa State over 6 Tennessee — Defense and turnovers tilt it to Iowa State.
Elite Eight
2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan — Cohesion and defensive consistency win the region for Iowa State.
FINAL FOUR
Michigan State (East) vs. Illinois (South) — Michigan State over Illinois. Izzo’s preparation and defensive identity stop Illinois’ guards.
Arizona (West) vs. Iowa State (Midwest) — Arizona over Iowa State. Talent and depth get Arizona to the title game.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Arizona over Michigan State — In a matchup of programs chasing a title, Arizona’s blend of size, freshman talent and depth wins a close game.
Champion: Arizona
Remember: this is a bracket of probabilities, not guarantees. Pick the upsets you trust and have fun with your bracket.
