Selection committee chair Mack Rhoades made a point after the first College Football Playoff rankings: the committee watches the games. That film study will matter as the group debates tight calls — most notably who should occupy No. 2 on Tuesday: undefeated Indiana, which scraped past 3-6 Penn State, or unbeaten Texas A&M, which convincingly beat a ranked Missouri. Below is a revised top-12 projection and the reasoning the committee is likely to weigh for each team.
1. Ohio State (9-0)
Why they’re here: The Buckeyes keep edging top teams thanks to strong game control, a high strength of record and standout offensive and defensive play observed on film.
Why they could slip: A softer remaining schedule and close comparisons to other undefeated teams give the committee little margin for error.
Need to know: ESPN Analytics gave Ohio State the best chance to reach the playoff and the highest odds to win it all entering Week 11.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan.
2. Indiana (10-0)
Why they’re here: Indiana’s résumé includes a double-digit road win at Oregon and a top-25 victory at Iowa; they avoided jeopardizing a first-round bye with a late escape at Penn State.
Why they could slip: Texas A&M’s strong performance and tougher metrics in strength of record and schedule press Indiana’s case.
Need to know: Remaining opponents are teams with multiple losses; Indiana has the best Big Ten path to the conference title.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue.
3. Texas A&M (9-0)
Why they’re here: The Aggies have big SEC road wins and a dynamic playmaking quarterback; recent defensive efficiency numbers were lower than Ohio State and Indiana, which hurt them last week.
Why they could rise: A convincing win at Missouri and a résumé that includes a Notre Dame road victory make a move up plausible.
Need to know: A&M’s odds to earn a first-round bye were middling and a road trip to Texas looms.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.
4. Alabama (8-1)
Why they’re here: The Tide’s road win at Georgia and a dominant stretch of ranked opponents keep them high despite an early loss to Florida State.
Why they could fall: The season-opening loss still anchors their résumé and limits upward mobility relative to undefeated teams.
Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule ranks among the best in the country.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma.
5. Georgia (8-1)
Why they’re here: Georgia’s résumé and recent play inspire confidence; the committee values their developing quarterback and balanced roster.
Why they could drop: Head-to-head loss to Alabama and nothing dramatic changing around them make movement unlikely.
Need to know: Georgia finishes the season with Texas and a couple of lower-tier opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas.
6. Ole Miss (9-1)
Why they’re here: The Rebels’ resume — including a signature road win at Oklahoma — and solid strength-of-schedule metrics keep them ahead of some peers.
Why they could fall: Close comparisons to teams like Texas Tech and the head-to-head loss to Georgia are factors.
Need to know: The committee examines opponents’ quality and even results of those opponents’ wins.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State (Egg Bowl).
7. Texas Tech (9-1)
Why they’re here: A dominant, double-digit win over previously unbeaten BYU and earlier road wins make a strong case; injuries explain a narrow loss to Arizona State.
Why they could rise: Consistent blowouts and a top defense in recent weeks make them tough to ignore.
Need to know: Texas Tech is the Big 12 favorite to reach the conference title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia.
8. Oregon (8-1)
Why they’re here: The Ducks got a résumé boost with a gritty road win at Iowa in poor conditions, and they rate highly in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why they could climb: Continued dominant performances and depth despite injuries could improve their standing.
Need to know: A head-to-head loss to Indiana limits their path to the conference title.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC.
9. Notre Dame (7-2)
Why they’re here: Seven straight wins since an 0-2 start, quality victories including USC and a stronger defensive trend have the committee impressed.
Why they could fall: Movement depends partly on how far BYU drops after its loss; Notre Dame benefits if BYU slips.
Need to know: Notre Dame still projects as the team most likely to win out.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt.
10. Texas (7-2)
Why they’re here: Texas has four straight wins and top-25 victories over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt; they also have a favorable strength of schedule.
Why they could fall: A loss to Florida earlier and the need to prove themselves against top opponents this month temper optimism.
Need to know: Texas faces two top-five teams in the final three weeks — Georgia and Texas A&M — giving them either a chance to leap up or to fall.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M.
11. Oklahoma (7-2)
Why they’re here: Quality wins over Tennessee and Michigan keep the Sooners in range, though they trail Texas because of the head-to-head loss.
Why they could fall: A lack of signature wins since the loss to Texas and an off week make large movement unlikely.
Need to know: If the playoff field were set today, conference-champion rules could bump teams like Oklahoma during seeding.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama.
12. BYU (8-1)
Why they’re here: BYU has a marquee win over Utah, but their lopsided loss to Texas Tech opens the door for re-evaluation of their résumé.
Why they could rise: The loss was to a top-10 team on the road; if BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, they could lock a spot.
Need to know: Strength of schedule is a weakness for BYU; a second lopsided defeat would severely dent their margin for error.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati.
Projected bracket and seeding based on this Top 12
First-round byes:
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champion)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round on-campus games (Dec. 19–20):
No. 12 South Florida (American champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinals (Dec. 31–Jan. 1 at the New Year’s bowl sites):
Winner of South Florida/Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Winner of Georgia Tech/Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Winner of Texas/Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana
Winner of Notre Dame/Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Bottom line: the committee’s film work and a few close statistical separators — defensive efficiency, strength of record and key head-to-head results — will determine whether Indiana keeps No. 2 or Texas A&M moves up. Expect a tight call Tuesday night.
