One win down, possibly three to go for Leeds. Daniel Farke had said four more victories would likely secure Premier League survival, and Friday’s 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest at a rain‑soaked Elland Road felt like a big step in that direction. Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert‑Lewin scored as Leeds moved to 29 points, nine clear of the relegation zone.
Farke described the victory as “a game with a bit more on the line” and hailed the character of the performance. The mood at Elland Road was upbeat, though Leeds’ cushion could shrink to six points if West Ham beat Burnley on Saturday.
History and the numbers sit largely with Leeds. Only three times in a 38‑game season has a side gone down after reaching at least 29 points at this stage: Sunderland (29 points in 1996‑97) and Ipswich and Birmingham (30 points in 2001‑02 and 2010‑11). The team that finishes 17th typically ends on around 38 points, and Farke noted three more wins from Leeds’ remaining 13 fixtures would reach that marker. Opta’s post‑match estimates put Leeds’ relegation chance at about 4.75% and Forest’s at 10.24%.
Leeds’ improvement has felt genuine. After a difficult run earlier in the season, Farke switched to a 3‑5‑2 at Manchester City in November, a tweak that helped spark a turnaround: Leeds have lost only two of their last 12 Premier League games and taken 18 points in that period. Former Leeds midfielder Stuart Dallas pointed to the change of shape and the psychological lift it brought ahead of a key run of fixtures.
Forest’s form and selection issues underline why their position is fragile. They have won only twice in their last nine league matches; one of those victories was a crucial 2-1 win at West Ham last month. Injuries and personnel changes have disrupted continuity: Matz Sels’ groin problem led to a change that did not go to plan, John Victor is now out for the season, Stefan Ortega only joined in January and made his debut at Elland Road, and teenager Zach Abbott was handed a first Premier League start at left‑back in place of the injured Murillo.
Sean Dyche was frank after the defeat, saying: “We just can’t make basic errors like that,” and adding that he judges progress by the season’s end rather than by individual results. But sources say the manager is under growing pressure at the City Ground. Losing in such a manner to a relegation rival is likely to intensify scrutiny of his position; owner Evangelos Marinakis has already overseen three managerial changes this season and has a history of decisive action when he judges it necessary, though another change before the campaign’s end seems unlikely.
The wider picture will become clearer over the weekend. A West Ham win at Burnley could cut Forest’s cushion to just three points, while Crystal Palace and Tottenham can extend their leads over Forest to six by Sunday. Forest return to action on Wednesday against bottom club Wolves at the City Ground — a fixture supporters will expect three points from. Fail to get them, and the pressure on Dyche is likely to grow even further.
