The MLB offseason is officially underway and free agency opens Thursday at 5 p.m. ET. Reporters gathered intel from executives, agents and scouts during the World Series and the early consensus is starting to form: big-money signings, a handful of blockbuster trade targets and several clubs ready to be aggressive.
Top free-agent hitters: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Tucker projects to be one of the most expensive bats on the market. Several evaluators believe he will command a contract north of $300 million, which will narrow the pool of realistic suitors to a handful of big-market clubs — think Los Angeles, San Francisco and Philadelphia. Teams weighing a mega-deal for Tucker are balancing elite production when healthy against an injury history the last two seasons.
Kyle Schwarber should draw wide interest but on a shorter term structure; because he turns 33 before Opening Day, a five-year maximum appears likely. That shorter duration keeps mid-market teams viable bidders, but larger-market clubs will probably drive the top offers. Insiders expect Schwarber to eclipse his previous earnings and for the Phillies to be among those weighing a reunion. Both hitters share the same agent, but their differing profiles mean teams may pursue one without chasing the other.
Tarik Skubal and Detroit’s winter decision
Tarik Skubal is one of the most discussed pitchers entering the offseason. Many clubs believe Detroit will at least consider trading him if the return matches the market for a top young ace who reaches free agency after 2026. The Mariners, Mets and Red Sox all loom as possible suitors, each offering different combinations of major-league talent and prospect capital. Expect the Tigers to weigh the value of keeping Skubal for another potential playoff push versus flipping him for long-term help. Club executives generally think Detroit won’t offer a pre-free-agent long-term extension, which will shape how the front office approaches trade conversations.
Dodgers and Blue Jays plans after the World Series
Both teams that met in the Fall Classic have clear offseason priorities. Toronto’s focus will likely be bolstering pitching — both rotation depth and the bullpen — while also resolving Bo Bichette’s long-term future. Bichette’s offense remains a cornerstone, but defensive questions at shortstop have prompted some to consider a positional move. The Blue Jays have significant payroll commitments but history shows ownership is willing to spend for contention.
Los Angeles has a glaring late-inning need: a reliable closer and more trustworthy right-handed arms to finish games. Several internal pieces have question marks, so expect the Dodgers to be active in the market for high-leverage relievers, via free agency and trades. The club will be linked to big names around the league — including the likes of Tucker and Skubal — but much of that interest may be exploratory.
New York clubs: expectations for the Yankees and Mets
The Mets are widely viewed as the more likely to make headline-grabbing moves. Their most urgent need is an established frontline starter; Skubal quickly surfaced in rumor circles after Detroit’s season ended. First base also remains unsettled with Pete Alonso set to test the market again and the club weighing a long-term commitment.
The Yankees need to rebuild bullpen depth and determine whether they can re-sign Cody Bellinger, who has multiple suitors. With notable pitchers starting next season on the mend, New York will also look for rotation reinforcements and shortstop insurance while Anthony Volpe recovers. Across both boroughs, the expectation is that ownership and front offices want moves that deliver immediate contention.
Teams to watch: Seattle and Philadelphia
Seattle finished with its deepest playoff run ever and will be watched closely this winter. The Mariners need more offensive support; midseason additions who are now free agents leave gaps atop the lineup. Club leadership has signaled payroll should be roughly steady from season’s end, leaving meaningful funds to pursue bats and the prospect capital to explore large trades.
The Phillies, under a front office not shy about spending to chase a ring, are expected to pursue upgrades where needed. That could include re-signing Schwarber if the price and fit align, adding bullpen help and possibly rotating depth if starters face injury or departure.
Names most likely to move this winter
A mix of veteran and controllable young players are being discussed as potential trade candidates, some because teams prefer to get value now rather than risk a complicated 2027 valuation amid looming labor uncertainty. Pitchers that have surfaced in chatter include Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore, Pablo López and Sonny Gray, among others. Clubs could also shop outfielders and position players such as Steven Kwan, Lars Nootbaar and even Adley Rutschman if the Orioles see a path to leverage Rutschman’s top-tier value.
Other likely moves could include Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta, Boston’s surplus outfield options (names like Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu have been mentioned), and a widely expected St. Louis decision to move Nolan Arenado, who is reportedly open to waiving his no-trade protection.
What to expect as the hot stove heats up
The opening weeks of free agency and the early winter trade market should deliver a mix of headline signings and strategic trades. Large-market teams with payroll flexibility will chase marquee bats and proven bullpen arms, while clubs with deep farm systems may attempt aggressive trades for controllable stars. Labor uncertainty also adds a wrinkle: some teams may prefer to transact now rather than risk a murky 2027 market.
Bottom line: expect a busy, if unpredictable, offseason. High-priced free agents will find selective markets, several premium pitchers and young stars could be moved for premium returns, and teams with championship urgency will push hard to improve their October chances.
