The 2025–26 MLB free-agent period begins at 5 p.m. ET Thursday. Below is a condensed guide ranking the top 50 free agents by projected total guaranteed cost to signing clubs (including posting fees where relevant), plus short contract forecasts and why teams might pay those prices. Projections blend industry views and the author’s judgment; the goal is predictive, not prescriptive. A note on the qualifying offer (QO): teams can tender a one-year, $22.025 million QO to receive compensation if a player signs elsewhere. I flag players I expect to be QO candidates; many of the top projected guarantees are QO-eligible.
Market context: I project roughly $3.5 billion in guaranteed spending this winter, slightly below my prior offseason forecast. Early free agency may be slower as teams and agents calibrate. Now, the Top 50 (projected contract follows each name):
1. Kyle Tucker, OF — 11 years, $418M ($38M AAV)*
Consistent five-year-plus star with power, on-base and defensive value; projection reflects megadeal competition among top clubs.
2. Framber Valdez, SP — 6 years, $168M ($28M AAV)*
Reliable lefty innings-eater with elite ground-ball profile and playoff experience; a steady No. 2/3 starter for contending teams.
3. Cody Bellinger, OF — 6 years, $165M ($27.5M AAV)
Versatile, multi-position bat with rebound 2025; youth and defensive flexibility lift his market.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B — 5 years, $160M ($32M AAV)
Consistent above-average hitter; age influences term but top teams will pay for steady middle-of-order production.
5. Tatsuya Imai, SP (NPB) — 6 years, $135M + $22.125M posting
Young, improving starter with elite command trends and a unique slider/splitter mix; posting fee raises all-in cost.
6. Dylan Cease, SP — 5 years, $145M ($29M AAV)*
High-innings righty with strikeout profile and bullpen-to-ace upside in flashes; QO consideration may temper bidding.
7. Bo Bichette, SS — 5 years, $130M ($26M AAV)*
High-upside infielder with recent bounce-back offense; defense questions could produce shorter-term offers with opt-outs.
8. Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH — 4 years, $128M ($32M AAV)*
Huge 2025 power season but limited to DH role; teams balance short-term production against age and defensive availability.
9. Pete Alonso, 1B — 4 years, $110M ($27.5M AAV)
Power left-handed run producer with defensive decline; likely multi-year offers concentrated on first several seasons.
10. Munetaka Murakami, 3B (NPB) — 5 years, $80M + $13.875M posting
Elite raw power from the left side, contact and position questions; cost reflects age and upside, posting adds to total.
11. Ranger Suárez, SP — 4 years, $92M ($23M AAV)
Pitcher with strong feel and changing pitch mix; projects as reliable mid-rotation lefty with innings and control.
12. Trent Grisham, OF — 4 years, $90M ($22.5M AAV)*
Walks-plus-power rebound and center-field track record; likely transition to corner outfield during next deal.
13. Zac Gallen, SP — 4 years, $76M ($19M AAV)*
Recent regression but strong track record; market thinks short-term deal likely with expectation of bounceback.
14. Edwin Díaz, RP — 4 years, $60M ($15M AAV)*
Elite reliever with two strong seasons; opt-out/term structure possible but multiyear big-leverage interest expected.
15. Michael King, SP — 3 years, $57M ($19M AAV)*
Unique arm and angle, injury history creates split market: one-year proves or multiyear discounts from development-focused clubs.
16. Gleyber Torres, 2B — 3 years, $57M ($19M AAV)*
Versatile infielder with rebound 2025; multiyear offers anticipated though QO remains an option.
17. Josh Naylor, 1B — 3 years, $52.5M ($17.5M AAV)
Contact-oriented lefty with good baserunning instincts; limited to first base but high floor for short-term deals.
18. Eugenio Suárez, 3B — 2 years, $45M ($22.5M AAV)
Proven right-handed slugger with defensive decline; market to pay for immediate power but keep term short.
19. Devin Williams, RP — 3 years, $45M ($15M AAV)
Elite reliever pedigree with a down ERA in 2025 but solid peripherals; teams may prefer shorter deals or opt-outs.
20. Shōta Imanaga, SP — 3 years, $43.5M ($14.5M AAV)
Mixed second-year MLB results but previous success and command; fits two- to three-year rotation needers.
21. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B (NPB) — 3 years, $36M + $6.925M posting
Plus power and on-base track in NPB, likely move to first base in MLB; posting fee modest relative to upside.
22. Merrill Kelly, SP — 2 years, $35M ($17.5M AAV)
Veteran innings-eater with deep repertoire; age (37) limits term but teams still value reliable starters.
23. Chris Bassitt, SP — 2 years, $34M ($17M AAV)
Consistent veteran starter with a strong track record; short-term deals probable given age and velocity dip.
24. Lucas Giolito, SP — 2 years, $32M ($16M AAV)
Bounce-back starter post-surgery; Red Sox could extend QO but two-year market expected if he declines single-year offers.
25. J.T. Realmuto, C — 2 years, $32M ($16M AAV)
Best catcher available by reputation; declining defense and age push toward shorter guarantees.
26. Marcell Ozuna, DH — 2 years, $30M ($15M AAV)
Down 2025 but underlying luck suggests some retained value; likely DH-focused offers for a year or two.
27. Nick Martinez, SP — 2 years, $30M ($15M AAV)
Veteran innings option with recent regression; teams will pay for bulk innings even on short terms.
28. Luke Weaver, RP — 3 years, $30M ($10M AAV)
Converted reliever breakout with one strong season; contract reflects uncertainty and role projection.
29. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B — 2 years, $27M ($13.5M AAV)
Strong 2025 counting stats but limited ceiling and position flexibility; short-term compensation likely.
30. Tyler Rogers, RP — 3 years, $27M ($9M AAV)
Submarine lefty with exceptional effectiveness; unique profile leads teams to value multiyear stability in bullpen mix.
31. Jorge Polanco, 2B — 2 years, $26M ($13M AAV)
Switch-hitter who provided strong 2025 offense; defensive versatility but aging profile keeps term short.
32. Harrison Bader, OF — 2 years, $25M ($12.5M AAV)
Plus defender and a rebound bat in 2025; two-year, club-friendly deals expected with some risk in year two.
33. Brandon Woodruff, SP — 2 years, $25M ($12.5M AAV)
Returning from shoulder surgery with short sample; big-market teams may gamble on high upside if he passes physical.
34. Robert Suárez, RP — 2 years, $25M ($12.5M AAV)
Ex-NPB reliever with high-leverage experience; mixed peripherals cap term to two years despite impact upside.
35. Michael Soroka, SP — 2 years, $23M ($11.5M AAV)
Injury history and conversion attempts between starter/reliever; still young enough to garner short-term starter bets.
36. Brad Keller, RP — 2 years, $22M ($11M AAV)
Surprising 2025 setup breakthrough after prior struggles; limited track record but multiyear interest likely.
37. Emilio Pagán, RP — 2 years, $22M ($11M AAV)
Velocity spike helped 2025 performance; flyball tendencies balanced by late-inning experience.
38. Kyle Finnegan, RP — 2 years, $21M ($10.5M AAV)
Role change unlocked higher strikeout rates; teams may offer multiyear deals if they buy the split-pitch jump.
39. Adrian Houser, SP — 2 years, $20M ($10M AAV)
Improved sinker velocity and fourth-starter profile; short-term rotation depth demand supports two-year offers.
40. Phil Maton, RP — 2 years, $20M ($10M AAV)
Unorthodox cutter/curve-heavy reliever who found success with tunneling; teams value unique bullpen looks.
41. Cody Ponce, SP (KBO) — 2 years, $18M ($9M AAV)
Revived prospect profile abroad with improved strikeout rate and durability; comp to recent two-year re-entry deals.
42. Raisel Iglesias, RP — 2 years, $18M ($9M AAV)
Veteran late-inning arm with some regression; still useful as setup/8th-inning piece on short deals.
43. Zack Littell, SP — 2 years, $18M ($9M AAV)
Control-and-deception starter with mixed pitch run values; two-year depth deals expected for reliable innings.
44. Luis Arraez, 2B — 2 years, $17M ($8.5M AAV)
Exceptional pure hitter but limited elsewhere; some teams will prefer one-year deals, others will pay for contact over two years.
45. Steven Matz, RP — 2 years, $17M ($8.5M AAV)
Former starter turned multi-inning reliever; left-handed reliability and innings flexibility warrant multiyear offers.
46. Ha-Seong Kim, SS — 1 year, $16M
Opted out after a lost 2025; a one-year prove-it on roughly his player-option price seems likeliest given recent injury concerns.
47. Caleb Ferguson, RP — 2 years, $15M ($7.5M AAV)
Younger multi-inning reliever with movement and deception; could out-earn comps if teams prize youth and upside.
48. Seranthony Domínguez, RP — 2 years, $15M ($7.5M AAV)
High-variance postseason performer with elite swing-and-miss stuff; two-year deals to balance risk/reward are probable.
49. Willi Castro, 2B/UTIL — 2 years, $14M ($7M AAV)
Switch-hitting utility piece with mixed defense; fits as depth/bench starter candidate for contenders or everyday clubs.
50. Justin Verlander, SP — 1 year, $13M
Still effective into his 40s; likely one-year offers from contenders needing veteran postseason length.
Other notable names: the class includes a long list of catchers, corner bats, middle infielders and innings-eating pitchers who will shuffle between single-year and short multiyear deals (examples include Danny Jansen, Gary Sánchez, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Yoán Moncada, Cedric Mullins, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Walker Buehler, Patrick Corbin and many international starters). Lefty and righty bullpen depth will also be in demand, with many veterans available for one- to two-year contracts.
What to watch: QO decisions (which affect compensation and market demand), early bidding dynamics (teams likely to be cautious at first), and posting negotiations for NPB/KBO players that add posting fees to all-in commitments. Injuries, opt-outs and last-minute medicals can shift this board quickly.
Bottom line: big-market teams with payroll flexibility will still chase true difference-makers (Tucker-level), midterm betting on solid starters remains common, and reliever and bench markets will be busy with two-year deals. Expect a mix of long megadeals for a handful and shorter, interest-driven contracts across the rest of the top 50.