ESPN staff — Nov 6, 2025
The first of two straight weeks of UFC welterweight main events lands Saturday when Randy Brown meets Gabriel Bonfim at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN+ with the main card at 7 p.m. ET and prelims starting at 4 p.m. ET. A welterweight title fight headlines next week’s UFC 322.
Brown returns for his second Octagon appearance this year after scoring a second-round knockout of Nicolas Dalby in April. Bonfim comes in on a three-fight winning streak, most recently edging former title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson by split decision in July. Notably, Bonfim’s last loss was a second-round TKO to Dalby in November 2023. Neither fighter is currently in ESPN’s divisional rankings.
Din Thomas’ prediction
Prediction: Brown by knockout.
Thomas says Brown’s clearest path to victory is a KO. He believes Brown has a reach advantage and has shown more confidence recently, allowing him to stand in the pocket and land power shots from a range Bonfim will struggle to counter. Bonfim needs to close distance to be effective, but doing so increases his risk of being caught by Brown’s power.
Betting analysis (odds as of publish time)
Ian Parker: Brown to win (+150).
Parker is surprised Brown is an underdog. He notes Brown has faced tougher competition, offers more avenues to win, and has better cardio if the fight extends. Parker’s plan for bettors: Brown must keep it standing to use his striking and reach advantage, and he should avoid being taken down early. If he does that, Parker believes Brown can pull the upset.
Parker’s best bets elsewhere on the card
Welterweight — Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
Pick: Salikhov to win (+140).
Reason: Parker doesn’t think Medic should be favored. Medic has been dropped multiple times and will face a lethal, high-IQ striker in Salikhov. Salikhov at plus money is Parker’s upset choice.
Men’s bantamweight — Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos
Pick: Simon to win (-175).
Reason: Parker likes the price on Simon. Barcelos is dangerous but presents a poor stylistic matchup for Simon. Outside of a quick flash knockout, Barcelos doesn’t offer many paths to victory; if Simon avoids early calf kicks, he should take this one.
Men’s bantamweight — Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos
Pick: Marcos to win (-195).
Reason: Johns is a tough competitor, but if he can’t impose his wrestling, Marcos should outpoint him on the feet. Parker highlights Marcos’ durability and takedown defense and expects this fight to go the distance with Marcos earning the decision.
Note: Odds and lines can change; check your sportsbook for the latest prices before placing bets.