We’re past the midpoint of the 2025 NFL season. Standings tell part of the story, but FPI, betting lines, injuries, schedule and on-the-ground reporting change the outlook. Seth Walder sorted all 32 teams into nine tiers based on FPI, market lines, recent performance, health and reporting. Below are the tiers with each team’s record, FPI playoff/division/Super Bowl chances, a short take on their current state and a concrete second-half objective from NFL Nation reporters.
Tier 1 — True Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) — Playoffs: 96.7% | NFC East: 96.2% | Super Bowl: 18.8%
The defending champs look built to repeat the division, and recent additions at edge and corner help mask earlier weaknesses. Goal: Lock up the NFC’s top seed.
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) — Playoffs: 95.2% | NFC West: 54.3% | Super Bowl: 22.2%
Stafford healthy, Puka Nacua playing elite, and the defense is stout. Goal: Secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills (6-3) — Playoffs: 87.2% | AFC East: 29.3% | Super Bowl: 12.4%
Josh Allen has been inconsistent at times and the run defense looked shaky against Miami. Goal: Chase the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Seattle Seahawks (7-2) — Playoffs: 91.7% | NFC West: 30.9% | Super Bowl: 11.3%
Sam Darnold’s resurgence has powered a high-scoring attack despite a weak rushing attack. Goal: Improve the run game.
Tier 2 — Super Bowl threats if they make it
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) — Playoffs: 75.8% | AFC West: 25.5% | Super Bowl: 18.9%
High EPA per play but a sluggish start; still lethal once hot. Goal: Upgrade the pass rush.
Detroit Lions (6-3) — Playoffs: 83.4% | NFC North: 46.1% | Super Bowl: 14.8%
Balanced roster, but the NFC is crowded and nothing is guaranteed. Goal: Solidify an offensive identity under OC John Morton.
Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) — Playoffs: 80.1% | NFC North: 41.5% | Super Bowl: 11.4%
Efficient in designed passing concepts; health remains a variable. Goal: Add a dynamic playmaker for Jordan Love.
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) — Playoffs: 64.1% | AFC North: 61.9% | Super Bowl: 9.5%
After a brutal 1-5 stretch and Lamar Jackson’s injury, they can still win a shaky division. Goal: Clinch a third straight AFC North title.
Tier 3 — (Almost) playoff locks
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) — Playoffs: 95.4% | AFC South: 86.1% | Super Bowl: 20.9%
Top offensive unit and a reinforced defense after deadline moves; Daniel Jones playing at a high level. Goal: Get the defense healthy and consistent.
New England Patriots (8-2) — Playoffs: 94.7% | AFC East: 70.6% | Super Bowl: 9.5%
Drake Maye is breaking out and the schedule has been favorable. Goal: Cut down on hits and sacks allowed to Maye.
Denver Broncos (8-2) — Playoffs: 91.7% | AFC West: 44.6% | Super Bowl: 12.2%
Bo Nix has been uneven, but the defense has been elite through the first half. Goal: Fix special teams reliability.
Tier 4 — Likely in, barring collapse
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) — Playoffs: 92.1% | NFC South: 90.8% | Super Bowl: 8.8%
Baker Mayfield is hot and rookie Egbuka is emerging despite injuries across the offense. Goal: Get offensive pieces healthy.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) — Playoffs: 84.6% | AFC West: 29.9% | Super Bowl: 10.0%
They’ve held serve despite season-ending left tackle injuries; the OL must stabilize. Goal: Improve kickoff and punt coverage.
Tier 5 — Leaning toward yes
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) — Playoffs: 85.5% | NFC West: 14.7% | Super Bowl: 9.6%
Limited Brock Purdy time and losses of Bosa/Warner bite, but the remaining schedule softens. Goal: Become a top-10 scoring offense.
Tier 6 — On the bubble
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) — Playoffs: 41.2% | AFC North: 32.7% | Super Bowl: 2.7%
The Aaron Rodgers experiment has been mixed and the defense has been inconsistent. Goal: Play steadier, more consistent defense.
Chicago Bears (6-3) — Playoffs: 43.7% | NFC North: 11.2% | Super Bowl: 1.9%
The offense has rebounded and Caleb Williams is improving. Goal: Close out games and avoid late collapses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) — Playoffs: 39.6% | AFC South: 10.2% | Super Bowl: 2.0%
Trevor Lawrence has had highs and lows; the late schedule is friendlier. Goal: Reduce drops after adding Jakobi Meyers.
Tier 7 — Long shots, but not impossible
Houston Texans (4-5) — Playoffs: 18.5% | AFC South: 3.8% | Super Bowl: 1.4%
O-line problems persist while the defense—led by Will Anderson Jr.—is a strength. Goal: Get the offense humming under OC Nick Caley.
Carolina Panthers (5-5) — Playoffs: 11.9% | NFC South: 7.4% | Super Bowl: 0.2%
The secondary has struggled against the pass; Bryce Young keeps the team competitive. Goal: Stay alive in the race and maintain contention.
Minnesota Vikings (4-5) — Playoffs: 7.1% | NFC North: 1.3% | Super Bowl: 0.3%
J.J. McCarthy flashed in a win over Detroit, but it’s an uphill climb. Goal: Evaluate McCarthy as a long-term option.
Tier 8 — Small chance, still mathematically alive
Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) — Playoffs: 5.3% | NFC East: 2.6% | Super Bowl: 0.4%
Dak Prescott has been effective but the defense has been poor; recent trades could pay off later. Goal: Have the defense play to league average over the final eight games.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) — Playoffs: 6.6% | AFC North: 5.4% | Super Bowl: 0.5%
Joe Burrow’s injury and backup performance, plus a struggling defense, are the issues. Goal: Identify young defensive pieces to build on.
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) — Playoffs: 3.8% | NFC South: 1.6% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Michael Penix Jr. shows promise, with a middling defensive unit. Goal: Continue Penix’s development.
Washington Commanders (3-7) — Playoffs: 1.2% | NFC East: 1.1% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Jayden Daniels is hurt and the defense is underperforming. Goal: Repair the defense and return key receivers to health.
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) — Playoffs: 1.7% | NFC West: 0.1% | Super Bowl: 0.1%
Kyler Murray is on IR and Jacoby Brissett has stepped in. Goal: Win enough to either compete or evaluate for draft positioning.
Tier 9 — Time to rebuild or evaluate for 2026
Miami Dolphins (3-7) — Playoffs: 0.5%
Tyreek Hill is out for the season, Tua has struggled, and the front office has made moves. Goal: Play .500 over the last eight to stabilize the head-coaching situation.
New York Giants (2-8) — Playoffs: 0.2%
Rookie Jaxson Dart has shown promise but injuries and a tough schedule have hindered results. Goal: Stay respectable and keep Dart healthy.
New Orleans Saints (2-8) — Playoffs: 0.3%
This season is largely about evaluating rookie Tyler Shough and future QB options. Goal: Develop Shough.
New York Jets (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Deadline trades suggest a pivot toward 2026 and a probable QB overhaul. Goal: Finish as a top-20 scoring offense.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Geno Smith has struggled and both sides of the ball have underwhelmed. Goal: Improve overall play and build on any offensive progress.
Cleveland Browns (2-7) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Rookie quarterbacks haven’t provided long-term clarity, but the rookie class elsewhere on the roster shows promise. Goal: Evaluate Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders for the future.
Tennessee Titans (1-8) — Playoffs: 0.1%
Cam Ward’s rookie season has been difficult and a coaching change has been made. Goal: Develop Ward for Year 2.
Notes: The listed records and FPI playoff/division/Super Bowl probabilities reflect the snapshot when this breakdown was compiled. The second-half goals are practical, near-term objectives offered by NFL Nation reporters for each team.
