Joe Lunardi — Nov. 6, 2025
Any judgments about the 2025–26 men’s college basketball season remain tentative after just three nights of play. Still, it’s reasonable to take an early measure of the power conferences — not by last year’s final numbers alone, but by answering one question: which league is most likely to produce the 2026 national champion?
Last season I pegged the SEC as the top conference by strength, number of NCAA bids, average seed and by producing the eventual champion. This year the rankings below weigh current and projected bid counts, average seeding and, most importantly, which conferences feature teams that look championship-ready.
Note: “Current bids” reflects the latest Bracketology snapshot. “Projected bids” is what the conference might realistically have on Selection Sunday.
5 — ACC
Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 6
Average seed: 6.2
Bid percentage: 33.3%
Championship-caliber teams: Duke is an obvious national-title contender, and Louisville is quietly resurging — a reminder that a program can go from Quad 4 obscurity to March relevance quickly.
Notes: The ACC has struggled to send a large share of its members to the NCAA tournament since expansion. It hasn’t reached the halfway mark in tournament representation since 2018, and the league’s growth to 18 teams hasn’t helped the bottom line. Still, there are several bubble teams that could push the conference past projections if they get hot late.
Game of the year: Duke at Louisville — Jan. 6, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
4 — Big East
Current bids: 5
Projected bids: 4
Average seed: 4.8
Bid percentage: 36.4%
Championship-caliber teams: UConn and St. John’s both look capable of deep NCAA runs. Each program has the experience and coaching pedigree to be dangerous in April.
Notes: The Big East feels more compelling when there’s real friction at the top. Villanova’s years of dominance are over, and the conference has more competitive balance and edge. That energy helps, though it also highlights long tournament droughts for programs like Villanova, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Butler and DePaul.
Game of the year: UConn at St. John’s — Feb. 6, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
3 — Big 12
Current bids: 8
Projected bids: 8
Average seed: 4.3
Bid percentage: 50.0%
Championship-caliber teams: Some of the Big 12’s most talked-about national contenders are recent arrivals — Houston, Arizona and BYU — while traditional powers like Kansas and Baylor are navigating mini-slides. If Kansas reclaims form, the conference could vault back toward the top.
Notes: The Big 12 delivers consistently entertaining conference nights, especially late-week showcases. It combines old-school venues with high-level play and remains one of the deepest leagues in the sport.
Game of the year: Houston at Kansas — Feb. 23, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
2 — SEC
Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 12
Average seed: 6.3
Bid percentage: 75.0%
Championship-caliber teams: Florida’s bid to repeat as national champion puts the SEC near the top of any power ranking. Beyond Florida, as many as half a dozen league teams could be Final Four threats on any given weekend, though it’s unclear which — if any — are true title favorites.
Notes: Last season the SEC set records for NCAA entries and performed at a high level in the tournament, including two Final Four teams and the national champion. That surge from a low of three NCAA berths in 2016 to 14 of 16 a year ago was extraordinary; maintaining that level is difficult and the pendulum may swing.
Game of the year: Florida at Kentucky — March 7, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
1 — Big Ten
Current bids: 11
Projected bids: 10
Average seed: 5.5
Bid percentage: 55.6%
Championship-caliber teams: Purdue, Michigan and Illinois look like serious Final Four contenders. Each has the star power and depth to win a national title, and Indianapolis could provide a favorable neutral setting for a Big Ten team to end the conference’s 25-year NCAA title drought.
Notes: The Big Ten may not boast the absolute highest quantity of projected bids this season, but its top end could be the deepest. Purdue is an easy “cut-down-the-nets” storyline for Indianapolis, though my preseason national pick remains Michigan. On opening night, Illinois also impressed and bears watching.
Game of the year: Illinois at Purdue — Jan. 24, 3 p.m. ET (Fox)
Conclusion
Early-season rankings are provisional, but this ordering reflects which conferences currently house the most realistic championship threats. The Big Ten sits atop this list because of its trio of elite contenders; the SEC follows for breadth and recent tournament success; the Big 12 and Big East offer high-quality teams and marquee matchups; and the ACC, while led by bona fide contenders, still has the most ground to cover to regain consistent depth.
Happy hoops — there’s a long season ahead and plenty of ways for these rankings to change.
