On Match of the Day Danny Murphy argued the title race is far from decided and Arsenal must stay united. Even if City leapfrog Arsenal on goal difference with a win at Burnley, Arsenal would still be in a strong position. They can — and have — produced emphatic results this season, so they must refocus and remember they are fighting for big prizes both domestically and in Europe. Murphy believes Arsenal can still win their remaining matches, but there are reasons to favour City.
The first advantage for Manchester City is schedule-related: they are already out of European competition and therefore fresher. That extra rest in the calendar matters as the season reaches its final stretch. The second factor is stability. Pep Guardiola appears to have settled on a preferred starting XI in recent games, which is unusual for him given the rotation his squad normally requires. Apart from a goalkeeper switch that has seen James Trafford deputise in some cup matches, Guardiola’s selection has been consistent. That continuity has allowed the front line to click, the Rodri–Bernardo Silva partnership to control midfield, and the defence to knit together. In the three matches after the international break they scored nine goals and conceded just once, showing the balance and form that can decide a title race. City also possess a deep bench of high-quality options if injuries occur, meaning the overall team largely picks itself.
Thirdly, big occasions tend to bring big players into focus, and Erling Haaland is the archetype of that trait. When pressure mounts, having a talisman who can produce decisive moments is invaluable.
By contrast, Arsenal are carrying more visible pressure. After back-to-back league defeats, their next home game against Newcastle will be played under a cloud of doubt rather than momentum. Even with excellent preparation and talent, handling the mounting expectation is now a major part of their challenge — nerves among supporters can filter through to the players inside the Emirates.
City, though, are experienced winners and less burdened by fear. They know how to manage finals and run-ins, and their recent performances have shown a relentless attacking mindset: even when matches looked tense, they kept pushing rather than sitting back. That mentality reflects Guardiola’s instruction to keep trying to add goals rather than merely defend a lead — a philosophy Murphy compared to the approach Sir Alex Ferguson encouraged at Manchester United in their prime. The collective winning experience across City’s squad means even newer members look comfortable; the desperation that can be seen in Arsenal’s camp is largely absent at City, whose fans can enjoy the ride.
Taken together — freshness, a settled XI and match-winning individuals — are the reasons Murphy edges towards Manchester City as the likelier champions. He set out these views speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
