One win down, possibly three to go for Leeds. Daniel Farke had said four more victories would likely secure Premier League survival, and Friday’s 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest at a rain‑soaked Elland Road felt like a big step in that direction. Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert‑Lewin scored as Leeds moved to 29 points, nine clear of the relegation zone.
Farke described the victory as “a game with a bit more on the line” and hailed the character of the performance. The mood at Elland Road was upbeat, though Leeds’ cushion could shrink to six points if West Ham beat Burnley on Saturday.
History and the numbers sit largely with Leeds. Only three times in a 38‑game season has a side gone down after reaching at least 29 points at this stage: Sunderland (29 points in 1996‑97) and Ipswich and Birmingham (30 points in 2001‑02 and 2010‑11). The team that finishes 17th typically ends on around 38 points, and Farke noted three more wins from Leeds’ remaining 13 fixtures would reach that marker. Opta’s post‑match estimates put Leeds’ relegation chance at about 4.75% and Forest’s at 10.24%.
Leeds’ improvement has felt genuine. After a difficult run earlier in the season, Farke s
