James Madison University (JMU) is making headlines as it announced its move from the Sun Belt Conference to the American Athletic Conference. This change is set to take place no later than July 1, 2028, and will establish JMU as the 15th football member of the American Conference.
Impact on Current Conferences
The departure of JMU brings up interesting dynamics in both the Sun Belt and the American. Currently, the Sun Belt features 13 teams while the American will have an odd count of 15. This poses potential scheduling challenges that must be addressed moving forward.
The Dukes’ entry into the American could very well signal a shift within the Group of 6 conferences, leading to further expansion. The landscape of college football is known for its unpredictability, and this latest move has prompted discussions about what might come next.
Conference Breakdown
American Athletic Conference
The American, now set to welcome James Madison, is in a unique situation with 15 football programs. Earlier rumors indicated that both Miami (Ohio) and UConn were potential candidates for future membership, adding speculation about further changes in the American.
Currently, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) fields 17 teams, while the Mid-American Conference (MAC) has 13. As the American looks for a stable lineup, welcoming teams like Miami (Ohio), Liberty, or even UConn as a football-only member might be plausible.
Conference USA
Conference USA is facing significant alterations, having been affected strongly by recent expansions and realignments. Presently, it consists of 10 football teams, but more moves could unfold as teams look for better prospects.
To counteract potential losses, CUSA could reach out to Tarleton State, who is contemplating a transition to the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). On the other hand, the Sun Belt might target Middle Tennessee, FIU, or Western Kentucky to fill the void left by JMU.
Mid-American Conference
The MAC has mostly enjoyed stability, however, with Northern Illinois's transition to the Mountain West before the 2026 season, that security could be shaken. Recently, Sacramento State paid an $18 million entry fee to join and has already assumed the 13th spot in football membership.
As rumors circulate, several MAC teams, including Toledo, Ohio, and Miami (Ohio), may find themselves as targets for bigger conferences like the American, Mountain West, or even Sun Belt.
Mountain West Conference
The Mountain West was also impacted by a wave of departures as significant programs left for the Pac-12, yet it managed to stabilize with new additions like Northern Illinois and UTEP. Presently, they have 10 football teams.
While the Mountain West appears secure, it may still consider adding more teams if the finances allow. Toledo and UC Davis remain contenders for possible future expansion.
The Future of the Pac-12 and Sun Belt
Pac-12's Challenges
After a tumultuous period, the Pac-12 managed a comeback with eight football teams in 2026, though they remain in a precarious position regarding scheduling and must explore the possibility of adding a ninth member soon, with UNLV being a potential candidate.
Sun Belt's Next Steps
For the Sun Belt, this shift marks a second consecutive year of membership changes. Last season, Louisiana Tech joined as the 14th team after Texas State departed for the Pac-12. Now, the Sun Belt will seek to regain its numbers and equilibrium after losing James Madison.
Possible candidates to fill the gap could include Liberty, Middle Tennessee, FIU, and Ohio, as the conference strives to maintain its competitive edge in college football.
Power Conferences on Shaky Ground
The Power Five conferences, primarily the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC, present a temporary calm with no immediate changes expected, though the Protect College Sports Act's future remains uncertain. Their current television contracts also suggest a stable yet vulnerable state that could influence membership in the near future.
Conclusion
As James Madison's decision to join the American Athletic Conference unfolds, it sparks a chain reaction of speculation within college football. The next steps taken by various conferences will significantly shape the future of the sport.