After the first College Football Playoff rankings, committee chair Mack Rhoades reiterated that the group spends a lot of time watching game film. That emphasis makes the fight for No. 2 especially interesting between Indiana (10-0) and Texas A&M (9-0) after Indiana squeaked past Penn State and A&M rolled at Missouri. Below is a Week 11 projection of the top 12 with brief rationales, counterpoints, key notes and the toughest remaining matchup for each. The committee’s next release is Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)
Case for: The committee flagged Ohio State’s slight advantages in offensive-line play, defensive play and game-changing talent. They’ve shown game control and have a strong undefeated résumé.
Case against: Both unbeaten Indiana and Texas A&M present credible challenges, and Ohio State’s strength of schedule is only so-so.
Note: Entered Week 11 with the highest playoff odds and best shot at staying No. 1.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
Case for: Road victories at Oregon and Iowa plus a big win over Illinois help Indiana’s resume. Remaining unbeaten after a close call at Penn State keeps momentum.
Case against: Texas A&M’s body of work and metric-driven strength could push the Aggies past the Hoosiers.
Note: Indiana’s last regular-season foes, Wisconsin and Purdue, each have six losses, giving IU a favorable lane to the Big Ten title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (9-0)
Case for: SEC road wins, a win over Notre Dame and a dominant showing at Missouri make a persuasive case. A&M’s dynamic quarterback play and earlier defensive strength are major factors.
Case for moving up: Convincing victories and strong statistical profiles make them a viable challenger for No. 2 or even No. 1.
Note: Entered Week 11 with roughly a 57% chance to earn a first-round bye in this projection.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)
Case for: A road victory at Georgia and a strong midseason stretch keep Alabama as the top one-loss team. Their schedule has been among the nation’s toughest.
Case against: The season-opening loss to Florida State is a notable blemish and limits upside absent others’ missteps.
Note: Movement is unlikely without major upsets elsewhere.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)
Case for: Steady play and a quarterback situation that’s trending up. Recent results and head-to-head scenarios anchor Georgia between Alabama and Ole Miss.
Case against: No significant changes around them; a fall would be surprising.
Note: Georgia’s run includes a Nov. 15 showdown with Texas, then comparatively lighter opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (9-1)
Case for: A road win at Oklahoma, a strong resume overall and solid strength of schedule help Ole Miss’ placement. Their only loss to Georgia keeps them behind the Bulldogs.
Case against: Some lopsided wins over weaker opponents and Texas Tech’s recent statement victory fuel debate.
Note: The committee factors opponents’ opponents; non-conference and SOS boosts matter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State (Egg Bowl).
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1)
Case for: A blowout of previously unbeaten BYU and a road win at Utah stand out. The committee has noted the quality of losses suffered when key players were out.
Case for moving up: Dominant results and efficient defense make a compelling case, especially with Big 12 title implications.
Note: Texas Tech is in strong position to reach the Big 12 championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia.
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1)
Case for: A resume boost from a gritty road win at Iowa in foul weather and without some starters; Oregon shows balance on both sides of the ball.
Case for moving up: Big wins and strong game-control metrics could carry them higher.
Note: A head-to-head loss to Indiana complicates their conference title path.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)
Case for: Seven straight wins after an 0-2 start, including a quality road win at USC and a tightened defense. Early losses came against top-25 opponents and were close.
Case against: If teams like BYU tumble or other bubble teams leap, Notre Dame could be nudged down.
Note: Entered Week 11 with the best odds to win out among their remaining slate.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt.
10. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
Case for: Four consecutive wins, including victories over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, have built a strong midseason resume.
Case against: An Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a blemish; BYU’s placement also influences Texas’ standing.
Note: Texas faces Georgia and Texas A&M in the final weeks — major opportunities to climb or fall.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M.
11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
Case for: Wins over Tennessee and Michigan and a generally solid remaining resume keep Oklahoma in play despite the head-to-head loss to Texas.
Case against: A bye week limits immediate movement, and BYU’s status could push OU down.
Note: If the playoff picture were set today, a conference champion could displace a non-champion during seeding decisions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama.
12. BYU Cougars (8-1)
Case for: A head-to-head win over Utah and a strong early resume; their lone loss came at Texas Tech’s top defense.
Case against: The Texas Tech loss exposed offensive limitations and highlights a weaker schedule overall.
Note: A Big 12 title would likely lock BYU in; failing that, finishing as a two-loss runner-up introduces uncertainty.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati.
Projected bracket based on these rankings
First-round byes:
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round campus games (Dec. 19–20):
No. 12 South Florida (American champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinals (Cotton, Orange, Rose, Sugar on Dec. 31–Jan. 1):
Winner of South Florida/Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Winner of Georgia Tech/Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Winner of Texas/Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana
Winner of Notre Dame/Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Bottom line: Ohio State projects at the top for now, but Indiana and Texas A&M are the most likely threats to supplant them. Late-season head-to-heads and conference-title outcomes will determine how the committee sorts the 1–4 seeds.